USC walks into Halloween with the stakes feeling about as stark as they come.
After falling back into old habits in a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin, the 6-2 Trojans have little room left to absorb another defeat if they want to keep their playoff hopes on life support. Home field is supposed to help, but the betting markets are not exactly buying into a rebound when Ohio State comes to town on Oct. 31.
The Buckeyes are dealing with their own quarterback issue, too. Julian Sayin is out with an arm/shoulder injury, which leaves freshman Luke Fahey or sophomore Tavien St.
Clair to run the offense. Even with that uncertainty, sportsbooks still have Ohio State clearly ahead in this matchup.
DraftKings and FanDuel both list the Buckeyes at -245 on the moneyline, while USC sits at +200 on DraftKings and +198 on FanDuel. Bet365 has the Trojans at +200 and Ohio State at -245, and BetMGM is close behind with USC at +200 and the Buckeyes at -235.
The broader prediction numbers lean the same way. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State an 82.8 percent chance to win, while 70 percent of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are backing the Buckeyes to finish the job.
It’s also the second time this season USC has been pegged as a home underdog. The first came in Week 4 against Oregon on Sept. 26, a 41-27 loss in which Southern Cal was beaten with backup quarterback Dylan Raiola under center for the Ducks.
The total is locked in at 50.5 across all four sportsbooks, though the price varies a bit. DraftKings has USC under at -110, FanDuel at -112, Bet365 at -111 and BetMGM at -105. The prediction markets are in the same neighborhood, with 55 percent of Polymarket traders on the over and 48 percent of Kalshi traders doing the same.
The spread is tighter, but still not especially friendly to the Trojans. DraftKings has USC at +7 with -115 odds to cover, FanDuel and Bet365 both have the Trojans at +6.5, and BetMGM lists them at +7 with -112 odds. On the prediction market side, 48 percent of Polymarket traders have Ohio State winning by more than 7.5 points, while 51 percent of Kalshi traders are on the Buckeyes by more than 6.5.
USC’s recent numbers against the spread haven’t helped the case either. After the Week 8 loss, the Trojans are 2-6 ATS, a cover percentage of 25 and a -7.0 ATS mark. The defense has kept them in games at times - allowing only 10 points, 65 rushing yards and collecting two sacks in the first half against Wisconsin - but it still hasn’t been enough to offset the offense’s struggles.
That side of the ball never found a rhythm against the Badgers. The Trojans couldn’t sustain drives or put points on the board, and by the end of the night Wisconsin had allowed 142 rushing yards but only 58 passing yards from Colton Joseph.
If Fahey gets the start for Ohio State, USC may see an opportunity to make life uncomfortable for a young quarterback. Fahey’s brief appearance in the Buckeyes’ Week 7 game against Indiana was rough: he threw just two passes, ran twice, and finished with negative two rushing yards. With only three appearances this season, he would enter this one with limited experience.
For USC, the formula is straightforward. Lincoln Riley and Jayden Maiava cannot afford another outing with two turnovers, five penalties and only seven points. Maiava has been much more productive at home, where he has gone 111-of-159 for a 69.8 completion percentage, 1,467 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions.
In Other News...
USC Blew A Showcase Chance Fans Have Wanted For Years
USCs latest loss to Wisconsin did more than knock the Trojans back in the standings. It also took some shine off a game that had been carrying real national-stage buzz, the kind of spotlight fans around the program have been waiting years to see return to the Coliseum. Instead of lining up for a possible ESPN College GameDay visit, USC is watching that show head to Minnesota for the Indiana game.
The drought is the bigger backdrop here. College GameDay has not been to USC since 2013, and this was shaping up as one of the cleaner chances for that streak to end. Now, with that window closed again, the wait only gets longer, and the possibility of that long-awaited return may end up being tied to a different head coach entirely. [Read more 🡒]
Lincoln Rileys USC Future Just Became A Real Trojans Debate
Lincoln Rileys long-term future at USC has become the kind of topic that can hang around a program whenever expectations and results start to drift apart. The latest discussion around the Trojans is not about a firing or an immediate move, but about the possibility of a negotiated separation if another school comes calling and Riley himself is open to a fresh start. In that scenario, the conversation has naturally turned toward possible landing spots, with Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech all mentioned as programs that could fit.
For USC, the issue is as much financial as it is football-related, since any exit would have to account for Rileys buyout and the structure of a deal that would not be simple for either side. There have been no reported negotiations or agreement, and the idea remains speculative for now, but the comparison to a previous USC basketball coaching departure shows how these situations can move from rumor to reality quickly. For a fan base watching closely, the real question is whether this becomes just another offseason talking point or the start of a much bigger reset. [Read more 🡒]
USC Just Hit A Point Lincoln Riley Cant Ignore
USCs latest loss did more than dent the record. It pushed the Trojans further down the Big Ten pecking order at a time when the leagues top teams are already separating themselves through steadier quarterback play, cleaner execution and more reliable coaching week to week. Ohio State remains the standard at the top of the rankings even with some vulnerabilities of its own, which only underscores how little room there is for error in a conference where the margin between contender and pretender can vanish quickly.
For Lincoln Riley, the concern is no longer just the one result on the schedule, but what it says about the seasons overall ceiling. The rankings assessment makes clear that USCs path has narrowed after recent setbacks, and the team now has to prove it can respond against the kind of competition that defines a Big Ten race. In a conference shaped by current records as much as perceived upside, the Trojans have reached a point where the next stretch matters more than any preseason promise. [Read more 🡒]