The College Football Playoff is headed for a major overhaul, and USC’s path through it just got a lot clearer.
ESPN and the CFP agreed to a reported $1.7 billion deal on the morning of Nov. 9, locking in a 24-team format that will begin with the 2027-28 season. For USC, that change carries a very specific message: nine wins may be enough to keep the Trojans in the conversation.
That matters because the current setup is still in place for now. The No.
20 Trojans are chasing one of the 12 spots in the playoff field this season, starting with No. 4 Indiana on Nov.
- They can still play their way in if they finish strong, with Maryland on Nov. 21 and rival No.
8 UCLA on Nov. 28 after Thanksgiving still ahead. Win out, and USC would be in the mix.
Under the new 24-team model, though, the pressure point shifts. USC no longer has to treat 10-2 as the absolute benchmark to feel safe. A nine-win season becomes the number that should get a team, including the Trojans, into the broader postseason picture.
The format change also alters how teams think about scheduling. With the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten title games removed from the Power Four setup in this new bracket, the old chase for a conference championship game disappears. That makes strength of schedule even more important, and USC still has one non-conference opening to fill for 2027 beyond UNLV and Nevada.
That is where Notre Dame could come back into the discussion. The two schools already announced they will renew their rivalry in 2029, but USC still needs a quality opponent on the schedule, and Notre Dame fits that need.
A 10-2 season in 2027 would likely put USC in position for one of the top eight seeds, especially in a Big Ten that will be loaded. The best eight teams in the new field will get a first-round bye, so finishing 11-1 or 12-0 would obviously strengthen the Trojans’ case even more. A perfect season would even create an argument for the No. 1 seed.
But the larger point is simpler than all the seeding math: nine wins is the new line USC has to clear to feel good about its playoff chances.
That idea lines up with something Lincoln Riley said back in Oct. 2026, when he was already pushing for expansion. Riley called the current 12-team setup a problem and made it clear the coaching room was on the same page.
"When you get a room of 50 coaches or whatever we have in this conference together, it’s hard to get everybody to be unanimous on something,” Riley said. “This is something where our room has been unanimous.”
The new bracket also puts USC’s recent seasons into sharper focus. The Trojans would have made the playoff under the expanded format in 2026, even if they had lost one more game.
They would have been the No. 20 seed and headed to Rocky Top to face No. 13 Tennessee, with the winner getting the defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers.
USC also would have qualified in 2025 under the 24-team system. In that bracket, former Pac-12 rival Arizona would have been the opponent, with USC slotted as the No. 16 seed.
That 2025 USC team finished the regular season 9-3, which is exactly why the nine-win threshold now looms so large for the Trojans moving forward.
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Indiana sits atop the Big Ten with one conference loss, and a USC win would reshape the league picture in a hurry while also keeping Oregons College Football Playoff hopes alive. For a program still trying to establish itself in its new conference home, it is an unusual kind of leverage to have this late in the season, and it makes the USC-Indiana matchup feel like more than just another Saturday game. [Read more 🡒]
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For USC, the takeaway is less about any single upset and more about how wide open the conference still feels. With so many teams taking turns looking vulnerable or dangerous, the Trojans are watching a league where momentum can change fast and where every result can alter the path ahead. The early read is clear enough: the opening is there, but the margin for error in the Big Ten remains thin. [Read more 🡒]