Life at USC keeps coming back to the same fork in the road for Lincoln Riley: the offense is humming, the defense is holding the whole thing back.
That was on full display in the Trojans’ 41-27 loss to Oregon in Week 4, a game that could have changed the conversation around USC’s season. Instead, the Ducks rolled for 504 yards, USC didn’t force a turnover, and the Trojans never got to the quarterback with a sack. What might have been a defining win became another reminder of how thin the margin is for this team.
ESPN’s FPI now gives USC just a 9.1% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff with Saturday’s game against Washington up next. That number fits the picture the Trojans have painted so far: an explosive offense, a defense that keeps dragging the ceiling lower.
The attack is doing exactly what Riley built his reputation on. ESPN’s analytics ranks USC seventh in the FBS in offensive efficiency, while Pro Football Focus has the Trojans with the fourth-best offense in the country.
Hudl IQ’s numbers back that up too, showing USC ahead of the national average in almost every offensive category. The Trojans are producing 9.3 net yards per pass, well above the 6.9-yard national average, and their offensive line is allowing sacks on just 2.8% of dropbacks compared with the 5.4% average elsewhere.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been the engine. He told reporters, “Teams fall apart,” but this team is such a tight team that we all bought into each other, and we’re all playing for each other out there. I’ve never seen a team as tight as this team.”
Maiava is putting together the best season of his career and is looking like a potential second-round NFL Draft pick. He leads the FBS in passing yards with 1,499 and is tied for first in passing touchdowns with 14. His offseason work and his command of the offense have helped USC score at a level that can cover for some flaws, at least for now.
The issue is that the flaws are loud. USC’s defense sits 116th in ESPN’s efficiency rankings out of 138 teams, and PFF places it 97th. Tackling is a major problem - PFF ranks the Trojans fifth-worst in the FBS there - and the unit is struggling across the board, whether it’s stopping the run, covering receivers, getting after the quarterback, or creating turnovers.
Through five games, USC has eight sacks and three interceptions. The secondary, meanwhile, has slipped to 14th in the Big Ten out of 18 teams, with 12 passes defended and nine pass breakups.
Cornerback Jontez Williams said the tackling focus remains in practice despite NCAA limits on live periods. “It’s a mentality,” Williams said. “When we get out there, we’re acting like it’s a person and we’re taking it to the ground.”
Injuries haven’t helped. Defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart returned against Oregon, but Alex VanSumeren left that game early with an injury. Wednesday’s Big Ten availability report lists both Stewart and VanSumeren as questionable for Washington, and safety Alex Graham, who has been useful at nickel this season, is also questionable.
The bigger picture looks uncomfortably familiar for Riley. The defensive problems at USC echo what followed him from Oklahoma, where the imbalance between a high-powered offense and a shaky defense showed up in some of the Sooners’ biggest games. Riley has gone through three defensive coordinators in four seasons at USC, and the results still haven’t changed.
His record against ranked teams at USC is 5-15, including 2-6 against ranked Big Ten opponents over the last two seasons. That’s a rough return for a coach making $11.5 million a year.
The Oklahoma examples are hard to miss. In 2018, the Sooners reached the Rose Bowl semifinal and lost 54-48 in double overtime to Georgia after giving up 527 yards of offense, even after leading 31-17 at one point. Baker Mayfield passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns in that game.
The next season, Oklahoma allowed 40 or more points in four straight games - all wins - against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas and West Virginia, then lost 45-34 to No. 1 Alabama in the CFP semifinal while surrendering 528 yards.
In 2019, the Sooners’ only regular-season loss came against unranked Kansas State, which piled up 426 yards in a 48-41 upset. Oklahoma then gave up a staggering 693 yards in a 63-28 Peach Bowl loss to LSU.
Riley still has chances ahead to change the story at USC, starting with Washington. For now, though, the pattern is clear: the offense gives the Trojans a shot, and the defense keeps asking for too much to be overcome.
“We felt like we let one get away the other day (against Oregon),” Riley said. “I don’t think there’s a team we’re going to play this year that we’re going to walk out there and not believe we’re going to win. You’ve got to have that first, and when you have that, the breakthrough wins are coming.”
In Other News...
USCs Receiver Shuffle Just Put More Pressure On Trent Mosley
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Until then, USC has to keep sorting through a reshuffled receiver rotation while finding enough reliability on the perimeter for the upcoming games. Mosleys absence comes at a time when the Trojans are already dealing with other receiver injuries and lineup changes, which makes the early part of the schedule even more about survival than style. [Read more 🡒]
USC Faces One More Problem Before A Must Win Washington Game
The No. 18 USC Trojans are heading into a pivotal weekend at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum after the loss to No. 15 Oregon left Lincoln Riley stressing the importance of bouncing back quickly. With Washington next on the schedule, the focus is no longer just on the defeat itself, but on making sure USC does not let one setback spill into a second one in a hurry.
Ahead of a must-win feel to the matchup, the Trojans are also sorting through injury updates while trying to get a clean read on what Washington brings with quarterback Demond Williams Jr. USC still has plenty to play for, but with the margin getting thinner, the pressure around this one is hard to miss. [Read more 🡒]
USC Defense Faces A Bigger Concern Entering Must-Win Washington Game
USCs defense spent part of the week trying to steady itself the old-fashioned way, with practice and a round of media availability featuring Jahkeem Stewart, Prophet Brown and Jontez Williams. The conversation coming out of the session centered on the basics that tend to decide November games: whether the defensive line is working together, whether the communication is clean and whether the tackling has tightened up enough to travel.
There is also the matter of availability, and that only adds another layer to a trip to Washington that already carries real weight for the Trojans. USCs injury report listed tight end Mark Bowman among several players as questionable, leaving the staff to sort through health concerns while the defense tries to show it can handle a tougher challenge on the road. [Read more 🡒]