USC is still trying to claw its way back into the sport’s top shelf, and ESPN’s David Hale doesn’t quite have the Trojans there yet.
In Hale’s tier list of all 138 FBS teams, USC landed in the third group, labeled “Maybe this is their year.” The Trojans were placed alongside BYU, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, a mix of teams with enough talent to dream big but enough uncertainty to make the whole thing feel fragile.
Hale pointed to Lincoln Riley’s own confidence, noting, “Lincoln Riley says his program is now ready to compete for a national championship,” before laying out the numbers that explain the hesitation. USC went 15-15 in its last 30 games against power four and five competition, and opposing quarterbacks averaged just 6.25 air yards per attempt against the Trojans last season, the lowest mark in FBS. On top of that, only 65.5 percent of passes against USC crossed the line of scrimmage, the second-lowest rate in the country.
That’s the kind of profile that makes a team intriguing and uneasy at the same time. Hale summed up that tier by saying there is upside to like, but “the door’s cracked open just enough for things to go haywire.”
Two tiers sit above USC. The top group, “The safest bets,” includes Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Just below that is “Trust issues,” where Georgia, Oregon and Texas reside. All seven teams in those top two tiers have reached the College Football Playoff at least once over the past two seasons.
USC is still chasing its first playoff appearance in program history, and the setup for Lincoln Riley’s fifth season has some real promise. The quarterback spot is a major reason why.
Jayden Maiava is back for the 2026 season after starting all 13 games in 2025. He threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns and earned Third-team All-Big Ten honors. With Riley, offense has rarely been the issue, and bringing Maiava back gives the Trojans another year of stability at the most important position on the field.
The bigger question remains the defense, the area where USC has been most exposed during the Riley era. The unit did take a step forward in 2024 and 2025 under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, but it still has room to climb if the Trojans are going to be in the national title conversation.
Lynn has since left for Penn State, his alma mater, and USC responded with a notable hire: longtime TCU head coach Gary Patterson as its new defensive coordinator.
Patterson spent 2000 to 2021 leading TCU, finishing with an 181-79 record and six conference titles. Whether that experience is enough to finally unlock USC’s defense is the question hanging over a team that wants to move from promising to truly dangerous.
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The line of scrimmage remains the area to watch as the Trojans keep sorting through who might fit best in the classs final stretch. Offensive line and defensive line both still have openings, and USC is expected to stay engaged with potential targets who could add needed depth and balance to the group before the cycle is done. [Read more 🡒]
USC Must Hold Off Heavyweights For One Of Its Top DB Targets
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Flowers has lined up a heavy fall slate of gameday visits, and two of them will take place at the Coliseum, giving USC multiple chances to make its case at home. By the end of those visits, he intends to cut his list down to 10 programs, which should clarify where the Trojans stand against the rest of the national contenders still pushing to land one of the states top defensive backs. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Still Has Time To Make A Push For Trey Wright
Three-star quarterback Trey Wright has put his recruiting process on the clock, and USC is still very much in the mix as he nears a decision. The Trojans offered Wright, who has also drawn interest from Oregon, Arizona, Kentucky and SMU, and Lincoln Rileys track record suggests the staff is being especially deliberate about where it puts its quarterback chips.
Wright is set to reveal his college commitment on Saturday, which gives the remaining contenders a little more time to make their case. For USC, the timing matters because Riley tends to be selective at the position, and Wright could end up being the programs quarterback add for the 2028 class if the Trojans land him. [Read more 🡒]