USC looks loaded on paper, but the path to a national title still runs through a long list of questions.
The Trojans bring back more than most teams in the Big Ten, add the No. 1 overall recruiting class, a top-50 transfer portal haul, a veteran quarterback, a legendary defensive coordinator in the mix and one of the sport’s sharpest offensive minds running the show. Even with all that, the playoff picture still feels far away. BetMGM has USC at 8-4 this season, with an 8.5-win total, while DraftKings lists the Trojans at +3,500 to win the national championship.
That gap between talent and expectation is why ESPN’s Bill Connelly dug into the biggest “ifs” for the sport’s top contenders, and USC’s case comes down to three major issues.
The first one is the defense, and more specifically whether the Trojans can finally become sturdy enough against the run to survive the Big Ten grind. Under Lincoln Riley, USC’s defense has been treated like an afterthought at times, and the program is heading into the 2026 season with its third different defensive coordinator. The results have been uneven: two seasons outside the top 100 in total defense in 2022 and 2023, then a much better 2025 campaign that finished No. 51 in scoring defense at 23 points per game, No. 47 against the pass at 207.5 yards per game and No. 58 against the run at 143.2 yards per game.
That’s where Patterson enters the picture. His last coaching stop came in 2021 at TCU, where the Horned Frogs finished 5-7 and the defense landed near the bottom of the FBS pack, ranking No. 118 in scoring defense at 34.9 points allowed per game and No. 119 in total defense at 462 yards allowed per game, according to Sports Reference.
But the bigger point is what Patterson has done over time, and that’s build elite defenses. At TCU, he had five No. 1 overall total defenses - in 2000, 2002, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
USC is going to need that kind of lift. ESPN noted the Trojans ranked No. 97 in yards per carry and had no sacks, while giving up 170 rushing yards in three of their four losses. With four projected conference losses on the schedule, that weakness has to get fixed if USC wants to hang around the top of the Big Ten.
The good news is the front has the kind of size and depth that can hold up in conference play. The projected starters are Braylan Shelby, Jahkeem Stewart, Jide Abasiri and Kameryn Crawford, all of whom are 6-foot-5 and over 260 pounds. Veteran transfers Zuriah Fisher and Jamaal Jarrett could also give the rotation a real boost.
The secondary should be in better shape too. Prophet Brown and Chasen Johnson are back after missing most of 2025, Alex Graham is expected to try to turn flashes into a full season, and Marcelles Williams is coming off a breakout year as the Trojans’ top corner. Jontez Williams and Carrington Pierce are also in line to help.
If that group clicks, USC has a real chance to make the whole thing work. Patterson’s track record suggests the ceiling is there. The question is whether this version of the Trojans can reach it.
The other major issue is simple: can USC keep winning at home and stop bleeding games on the road? Last season the Trojans were perfect in true home games at 7-0, which pushed Riley’s home record at USC to 22-5.
The last time Riley and the Trojans went 7-0 at home was in 2022, a season that included a big win over No. 15 Notre Dame.
That home edge will matter again in 2026, because three huge games land at the Coliseum: Oregon on Sept. 26, Washington on Oct. 3 and Ohio State on Oct.
- Those are the kinds of matchups that can shape a CFP resume, and USC fans will have to bring the energy if the Trojans are going to win them.
On the flip side, the road numbers are still a problem. USC is 10-10 in true road games under Riley, and last season the Trojans went 2-3 away from home. Those losses included conference defeats to Illinois and Oregon, plus the rivalry loss to Notre Dame.
If Riley and his staff can clean that up while protecting their home turf, USC’s playoff case gets a lot stronger.
The final big question sits on offense, where the Trojans are replacing a star-powered receiving duo and asking younger players to carry more of the load. In 2025, Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane formed one of the best receiver tandems in the country, and maybe in program history. They were central to Jayden Maiava’s growth in his first season as a full-time starter, helping power an offense that finished No. 13 nationally in total offense at 465.5 yards per game and No. 6 in passing offense at 296 yards per game.
Now the room looks very different. The only returning starter is sophomore Tanook Hines, who had 34 catches for 561 yards and two touchdowns.
Redshirt sophomore Zacharyus Williams is next, but he was limited to five games because of injury. The most experienced option is NC State transfer junior Terrell Anderson, who had 39 receptions for 629 yards and five touchdowns in 2025.
USC did add blue-chip talent in the 2026 recruiting class with Trent Mosley, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Luc Weaver and Boobie Feaster, but asking true freshmen to step in right away is a heavy lift.
If the Trojans can settle on a starting four early and get that young group to grow up fast, Maiava’s development can keep moving forward. And if the defense really does take a leap under Patterson, USC can stop looking like a team with title potential on paper and start looking like one that can actually chase it.
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