No. 2 Ohio State walks into USC with the kind of pressure that follows a team ranked near the top of the title race: win, and the conversation rolls on; lose, and everything gets messier.
The Buckeyes are 6-1 and already have a blemish from their Week 2 loss at Texas. Now they’re asking freshman quarterback Luke Fahey to make his first start on the road with Julian Sayin out, and that changes the entire feel of the matchup.
USC, meanwhile, is back outside the rankings after its loss to Wisconsin, but the Trojans are still 6-2 and not out of the picture in this game. They also have home field, and that matters because Jayden Maiava’s numbers at USC are far stronger there than they are away from Los Angeles.
At home, he’s completing almost 70% of his passes, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and throwing 13 touchdowns against three interceptions. On the road, those numbers drop to 62.6% completion and 7.3 yards per attempt.
That setting gives USC a real path to hanging around, and maybe more. Maiava has been especially effective on intermediate throws, where he has seven touchdowns and one interception on passes between 10 and 19 yards. USC doesn’t need to live on deep shots to move the ball here.
The challenge for Ohio State is figuring out what the offense looks like without Sayin. Jeremiah Smith is a potential Heisman winner, but somebody still has to deliver the ball to him. Fahey has only 13 pass attempts, so there’s very little to go on before his first road start in a game like this.
The safest answer would seem to be leaning on Bo Jackson, but even that comes with caveats. Jackson is averaging 5.9 yards per carry at home and 3.8 on the road this season.
The Buckeyes have been better against tougher competition away from home, but they haven’t shown they can simply line up in a difficult game and run at will. With Sayin available, defenses had to account for more.
Without him, Ohio State’s offense looks likely to be simplified, and that doesn’t guarantee efficiency.
That’s part of why this matchup points toward USC and the under. Ohio State’s defense remains the biggest obstacle for the Trojans, and the Buckeyes are allowing successful plays on just 32% of opponent passes. USC’s run game doesn’t look strong enough to ease the burden on Maiava, so the Trojans may have to earn everything.
Still, getting seven points feels valuable here. USC can stay inside the number without turning this into a track meet, especially if Ohio State leans conservative and the game slows down. The Buckeyes’ road fourth-quarter scoring has also been modest, averaging just 6.3 and 4.3 points over the last two seasons.
Ohio State’s record under Ryan Day against unranked teams is another reason the upset remains a long shot: the Buckeyes are 58-1 in those games, with the lone loss coming against Michigan in 2024. Even so, a close game late opens the door for USC, and Maiava gives the Trojans a real chance to push this into the fourth quarter and keep the upset within reach.
Prediction: USC +7 vs. Ohio State
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