Ohio State comes into Week 9 carrying all the usual national-title expectations, but the trip to USC gets a lot trickier with Julian Sayin no longer under center.
That change puts the spotlight squarely on a matchup between two college football heavyweights, and it gives the Trojans a real opening if they can force the Buckeyes into uncomfortable spots early.
The clearest path for Ohio State still runs through its defense. The Buckeyes have been suffocating on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.4 points and 264.3 total yards per game, good for fourth and sixth nationally. Against the run, they’ve been even sturdier, giving up only 92.9 rushing yards per game.
That matters because USC’s ground game has been stuck near the bottom of the FBS, ranking 105th while averaging only 131 rushing yards per game. If Ohio State can bottle that up, it can squeeze the Trojans’ offense and force them away from balance.
On the other side, Jeremiah Smith keeps giving Ohio State a weapon few defenses can truly solve. The wideout has piled up 984 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on 52 catches, and even without Sayin, the Buckeyes can still try to get the ball into his hands and let him work after the catch. A slower pace, some help from Bo Jackson in the run game, and a defense doing the heavy lifting would give Ohio State a workable formula.
USC’s best shot is to turn the pressure up on Ohio State’s new quarterback situation. If the Trojans can get heat off the edge and disrupt the replacement early, they may be able to buy enough room for their offense to stay aggressive.
The numbers say they can do that. USC is averaging 303.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th nationally, and Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,303 yards and 19 touchdowns. The Trojans also convert 50.5 percent of their third downs, the 14th-best mark in the country.
That third-down efficiency could become a key swing point, especially against an Ohio State defense that has held opponents to a 38 percent conversion rate. USC will need Maiava to take care of the ball and challenge Ohio State deep, while the defense has to keep the Buckeyes’ inexperienced quarterback from settling in.
Still, the biggest edge in this matchup belongs to Ohio State’s defense. Sayin’s absence is a real concern, and USC has a legitimate chance to make this game uncomfortable. But the Buckeyes’ ability to shut down the run and stay consistent on defense gives them the cleaner path as the game wears on.
The Big Lead prediction: Ohio State 30, USC 23
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