Greg McElroy is betting on USC to keep rolling in a Week 4 showdown that could send Oregon into a tough early hole.
The ESPN analyst took the Trojans by a 34-31 score on his Always College Football podcast, calling for No. 12 USC to hand No.
20 Oregon its second loss Saturday night at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m.
ET on NBC, and McElroy made it clear he expects points.
“We do not see Oregon keeping this offense under 28 in the Coliseum,” McElroy said.
USC enters at 4-0 after opening Big Ten play with a 42-35 win at Rutgers. Oregon is 2-1 after a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State, a team that had lost 21 straight games against FBS opponents. The Ducks did beat USC 42-27 last November in Eugene, but McElroy sees this one differently.
A big part of that comes down to Jayden Maiava, who has been lighting up defenses. The USC quarterback leads the country with 1,173 passing yards and has thrown 12 touchdowns against just one interception. Against Rutgers, he finished with 277 yards and two scores, while King Miller added 102 rushing yards.
McElroy also highlighted the protection around Maiava. “He plays behind a line that's allowed just two sacks in four games,” McElroy said.
That, in his view, is where Oregon has lagged behind. Dante Moore has taken more heat, and McElroy pointed directly to that edge.
“Oregon has been sacked seven times in the first three games. That's the difference between these two quarterbacks right now,” McElroy said.
Moore’s numbers have swung from one week to the next. He went 14 of 29 for 191 yards in Stillwater, then answered with 280 yards and four touchdowns on 19 of 23 passing in an 84-0 win over Portland State.
USC has also been cleaner in the moments that matter. “They are great on third down. They are 30 of 48,” McElroy said.
The pick also leaned on a pair of Oregon trends tied to Dan Lanning. “He is 43-0 when his defense allows fewer than 28 points,” McElroy said. “USC has not scored fewer than 39 in any game this year.”
The other streak comes through the pass rush. “Lanning is 19-0 when his defense records three or more sacks,” McElroy said. “Oregon has just four sacks this year.”
Neither defense has been airtight. Oregon gave up 554 yards at Oklahoma State, while USC allowed Rutgers to pile up 460 yards and 35 points last week.
That leaves turnovers as another possible swing point, especially with Oregon at seven takeaways and USC at five giveaways. “In a game that's this close on paper, a single short field could determine the outcome,” McElroy said.
Both teams are also dealing with injury questions at receiver. USC freshman Trent Mosley missed the Rutgers game with a knee injury and is not expected to play Saturday. He had 13 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns in his first three games, and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt now leads the Trojans with 258 receiving yards.
Oregon will be without Jeremiah McClellan, while tight end Jamari Johnson’s status is unclear after missing two straight games. “If McClellan's down, then it could be Messiah Hampton, who caught two touchdowns against Portland State,” McElroy said.
Even with the injury concerns and the defensive leaks, McElroy still came back to USC. “USC has the better protection.
They have the better third-down offense. They have the home crowd,” McElroy said.
If his call is right, Lincoln Riley’s team moves to 5-0 and Oregon drops to 0-1 in Big Ten play.
In Other News...
Oregon Now Has One More USC Threat To Worry About
As USC builds toward its matchup with Oregon on Saturday at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, one of the quieter storylines around the Trojans is the possible return of defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart. Lincoln Riley offered an update on Stewarts status this week, and the early-read is encouraging for a player USC has not had available this season because of a foot injury.
Stewart is still working his way back, but the fact that he is progressing adds another layer to a game that already carries real weight for the Trojans. If USC can get him back in the mix soon, it would give the front a welcome boost at a time when Oregon already has enough to sort through in a high-profile Big Ten showdown. [Read more 🡒]
USCs Fast Start Faces Its First Real Test Against Oregon
Southern California has spent the early part of the season looking every bit like a team that can make noise in its new conference home, and now it gets a measuring-stick game with No. 20 Oregon coming to town for a Big Ten matchup. Jayden Maiava has been the engine for the Trojans, leading the conference in passing yards and touchdowns, while the rest of the roster has helped USC build the kind of balance that usually travels well into big games.
Oregon brings its own challenge, and then some. Dan Lannings team has already shown it can handle the road in Big Ten play, and the Ducks arrive with enough offensive punch and defensive structure to make this USCs most demanding test yet. For the Trojans, the larger question is not whether they have started fast, but whether that start can hold up when the opponent is ranked, disciplined and comfortable in the kind of game that tends to expose soft spots. [Read more 🡒]
USC Heads To Oregon With New Playmakers And Growing Concerns
USC is heading to Oregon coming off a Week 3 stretch that clarified a few things about the roster and raised a few more questions. On offense, King Miller and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt have started to look like real pieces for the Trojans, giving the unit some much-needed fresh production as the season starts to settle in.
Jayden Maiavas play has slipped, and Waymond Jordans role has shrunk at the same time, leaving USC to sort out what the attack is supposed to look like in a tougher environment. The defense has its own issues to clean up, too, with the run front and the secondary both showing the kind of inconsistency that could become a problem quickly on the road in Eugene. [Read more 🡒]