USC’s narrow escape against Washington has sportsbooks treating the Trojans a little differently heading into Oct. 10 at Penn State.
After the No. 19 Trojans pulled out a 25-21 win in Week 5, oddsmakers still gave USC a slight edge, but not by much.
Bet365 and BetMGM opened USC at -115 on the moneyline, with Penn State at +105. DraftKings listed the Trojans at -120 and the Nittany Lions at +100, while FanDuel had it even tighter at -111 for USC and -108 for Penn State.
Caesars and Fanatics Sportsbook had not posted odds.
The betting markets are leaning USC as well, though not by a wide margin. Kalshi traders were at 53 percent on a Trojans win and 47 percent on Penn State, while Polymarket had USC at 52 percent and PSU at 48 percent. ESPN Analytics went the other direction, giving Penn State a 62-percent shot to win and USC 38 percent.
The setup matters for both teams. Penn State is 3-2 and 0-2, and it badly needs a response after back-to-back conference losses.
The first was a 24-20 collapse against Wisconsin, when the Nittany Lions led 20-3 early before giving up three straight scoring drives. The latest was a 34-13 loss to Northwestern, a game in which Penn State was outplayed across nearly every category.
USC, meanwhile, is coming off its bounce-back win, but it came with plenty of stress attached. The Trojans had to rally in the second half and then get a stop at the end to escape Washington in the final seconds of regulation.
Oddsmakers also see points on the board. The total is sitting above 50, with Bet365 and DraftKings at 55.5 and even odds on the over and under.
FanDuel has 53.5, with -114 on the over and -106 on the under. BetMGM is at 54.5, with -115 for the over and -105 for the under.
On the prediction markets, 47 percent of Kalshi traders are on over 55.5, and 48 percent of Polymarket traders are taking the over at that number.
The spread is just as tight. BetMGM has USC as a 1-point underdog at -110 to cover.
Bet365, DraftKings and FanDuel all list the Trojans as 1.5-point favorites, with slightly different prices attached. Kalshi and Polymarket are split right down the middle, with 49 percent backing USC by more than 1.5 points.
That’s not exactly a friendly number for Trojans backers, especially after USC’s four-point win pushed the team to 1-5 against the spread. That works out to a 16.7-percent cover rate and -7.3 ATS. The splits get even rougher after wins, where USC is 1-3 against the spread, and on the road the Trojans are 0-1 ATS.
For USC to cash in against the spread, the defense may have to carry the weight again. The Trojans did create pressure and get sacks against Washington, but tackling and limiting explosive plays remain issues. The offense is still putting up points, yet the noise and energy inside Beaver Stadium could make this a very different kind of test, especially after USC had to dig out of an early offensive slow start in Week 5.
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USCs defense came out of Washington with a win, but not without a few uneasy moments that will linger in the film room. In a 25-21 victory over the Huskies, the Trojans had the kind of mixed outing that can leave a staff thankful for the result and still frustrated by the details, from a costly missed-tackle sequence that opened the door for a long touchdown to the kind of timely response that kept the game from slipping away.
Jahkeem Stewarts fumble return for a score gave USC a huge lift, and Kameryn Crawford made key defensive plays late to help secure the finish. Even so, Washington had chances behind Demond Williams Jr. and Chris Lawson, and the combination of injuries and breakdowns made this one feel closer than the Trojans would have preferred, with one brutal lapse standing out in a game they still managed to escape. [Read more 🡒]