No. 12 USC and No. 20 Oregon walk into Saturday night carrying the kind of pressure that can tilt a season in one direction or the other.
That’s the backdrop for the Week 4 showdown in the Coliseum, where the Ducks are a 3-point road favorite over the Trojans, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
For David Pollack, the matchup comes down to a simple question: which team do you trust more?
Breaking it down on his “See Ball Get Ball” podcast, Pollack said the game has the feel of a classic Pac-12 shootout.
"If you asked me what game has the chance to be the most exciting, I absolutely think it's this one. This has got old Pac-12 written all over it to me," Pollack said. "Both teams might touch 40s, but I feel very confident in saying they're both going to get in the 30s."
He still made a pick, though not with much confidence.
"When you're picking this game, it feels like a 'What do you trust the most?' game to me," he said.
"I'm gonna say this out loud, I don't know if I should -- I don't trust either team. I don't have high confidence. ...
But USC at home, and from what i've seen so far, I think I trust them a little bit more. Which is very weird to say.
I've got 38-34 USC. And I think if that's the case, everyone will be off the Ducks' bandwagon -- not just me."
USC’s offense gives Pollack plenty to like. Fifth-year senior quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,173 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception in four games.
The Trojans also bring a strong ground game with King Miller at 338 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry, plus Waymond Jordan with 188 yards at 5.1 per carry. Add in a deep young receiving group, and the Trojans have the kind of balance that can stress a defense in a hurry.
The concern, though, is the other side of the ball. USC’s defense, now under longtime former TCU head coach Gary Patterson in his first season as defensive coordinator, started the year with encouraging results against San Jose State and Fresno State. Since then, it has slipped badly, allowing 30 points to Louisiana and 35 to Rutgers.
"A couple things really bother me about this [USC] defense," Pollack said. "One, they have to play zone coverage in the back end.
That's what Gary Patterson wants to do anyways, but I'll say this -- the run fits up front really bother me. It really bothers me.
They do a poor job of getting out of gaps. ... So I'm really worried about this defense."
Oregon’s issues have been a bit more surprising. Last season, the Ducks were elite on that side of the ball, ranking seventh nationally in total defense at 273.7 yards allowed per game and 12th in scoring defense at 17.9 points per game on the way to the College Football Playoff semifinals. This year, the numbers have backed up: Oregon ranks 55th in total defense at 310.3 yards per game and is tied for 68th in scoring defense at 22.0 points per game.
The offense still has punch, with Dante Moore back at quarterback and off to a strong start: 849 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions in three games. But the run game, led by Jordon Davison’s team-high 194 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry, has not given Oregon the kind of support it needs, ranking 68th nationally.
"Really, it's the defense more than it's the offense. Dante Moore has 9 touchdowns, 0 interceptions -- still doing a phenomenal job taking care of the football," Pollack said, breaking down the Ducks.
"The run game hasn't supplemented Oregon at all. That's been the biggest 'Holy cow' that's stuck out.
Because last year, they wanted a street fight. They wanted to punch you in the mouth. ...
But the offense hasn't been the biggest issue -- it's been the defense. And they've been giving up so many plays in the back end."
That’s why Pollack leaned USC’s way, even with Oregon coming in as the higher-ranked team and the road favorite.
"They've played some pretty good offenses, Oregon has. Obviously, Oklahoma State is really, really good on offense.
Boise State is really good on offense. [USC] is the most balanced offense maybe in the country, period," Pollack said.
"They know how to run it. They know how to throw it.
USC, the young receivers have absolutely molded together nicely, the experience on the offensive line, the experience at QB.
"So you're telling me the defense has struggled with eye discipline, and now you get Lincoln Riley and now you get Maiava? ... That matchup, to me, is crazy to watch because it's obviously strength on Oregon's weakness so far to start the season."
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