Lincoln Riley has spent four seasons at USC selling the idea that the Trojans were inching toward something bigger. That pitch is wearing thin now, and Saturday’s matchup with Oregon feels like the moment where USC has to stop talking about where it’s headed and start showing where it actually stands.
The Trojans are 4-0 and ranked No. 12, with an offense that has been humming from the start. They’ve scored at least 39 points in every game, and Jayden Maiava has played like one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
That part looks familiar, though. Riley’s teams have usually had no trouble lighting up a scoreboard.
The real issue has always been the same one: can USC handle good teams?
Under Riley, the Trojans are 5-13 against ranked opponents. Against ranked Big Ten teams, they are 1-4 since joining the conference.
Last season, USC was 8-2 and headed to Eugene with a chance to put itself in position for the College Football Playoff. Oregon handled the Trojans 42-27.
USC stayed within striking distance for most of the game, pulled within one score on a fourth-quarter touchdown, then gave up another Oregon score immediately and never scored again.
That has been the frustrating pattern with Riley’s USC. The team can look close.
It can look dangerous. It can still come up short against the best on the schedule.
The 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game was supposed to be the breakthrough. Beat Utah, and USC was headed to the playoff in Riley’s first season.
Caleb Williams was on his way to another Heisman Trophy, and the program looked like it had pulled off one of the fastest rebuilds in recent memory. Instead, Utah rolled to a 47-24 win, Williams hurt his hamstring, and the momentum vanished.
At that point, there was still room to believe USC was ahead of schedule. Riley had taken over a 4-8 team and gotten it within one win of the playoff in a year. The future still felt open.
Not anymore. USC went 8-5 in 2023, then 7-6 in 2024. Last season’s 9-4 record was a step forward, but it still came with the same old problem: the Trojans again fell short against top-tier competition.
To USC’s credit, the program has made changes that were impossible to ignore. Recruiting has improved.
The roster is deeper. Riley moved on from Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator and brought in new coaches with fresh ideas.
The Trojans have also tried to build a team better suited for the Big Ten, one that can survive more physical games instead of trying to win everything 48-45.
There have been signs that the work is paying off. There have also been games like the one against Rutgers, when USC allowed 460 yards and 35 points.
That’s part of what makes Oregon such a revealing opponent. The Ducks have become the model for what USC wants to be.
Since both programs left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, Oregon has looked right at home. Dan Lanning has built a team that can score with anyone and stand up physically against the conference’s best.
Oregon has won the Big Ten and reached the playoff twice.
USC, meanwhile, has spent years explaining why it hasn’t gotten there.
Still, Oregon is not rolling into the Coliseum as an untouchable machine. The Ducks already lost at Oklahoma State this season and had trouble with Boise State. They are talented, but they are not invincible.
That matters because USC has the pieces to make this a real test. It is at home.
It is undefeated. Maiava is playing well.
The offense can score on anybody. If this is the version of USC everyone has been waiting for, this is the kind of game it should win.
If it doesn’t, the rest of the season starts to look a lot harder. Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana are still ahead. A loss Saturday wouldn’t end USC’s season, but it would shrink the room for mistakes in a hurry.
And it would bring the same old questions roaring back: can USC beat the best teams on its schedule, can it hold up on defense, and has the program really turned the corner or just found another way to keep promising that it’s close?
Riley has been saying USC is getting there for a long time. The problem is that “getting there” has gone on long enough.
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