The 2026 Crosstown Rivalry is already drawing attention, and the early numbers hint at a game that could matter for both sides in a big way.
USC heads into the Nov. 28 matchup at the Rose Bowl as a 10.5-point favorite over UCLA, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The over-under sits at 55.5, a sign that oddsmakers expect plenty of offense when the Trojans and Bruins close out the regular season.
That line comes with some obvious context. USC brings back star quarterback Jayden Maiava, who led the Big Ten in passing last season, and the Trojans are still being viewed as one of the conference’s top offensive teams. If that carries over, this rivalry game could easily clear the 55-point mark.
UCLA, though, has a different look heading into Bob Chesney’s first season in charge. The former James Madison coach arrives with a transfer class that includes some familiar names from his old program, most notably running back Wayne Knight. Chesney is trying to build the Bruins with the same kind of model Curt Cignetti used in his first season with the Indiana Hoosiers, and the early hope in Westwood is that the formula can produce a surprise run.
The Bruins also have Nico Iamaleava back under center, and his role could decide whether UCLA can make this a true upset shot. He already showed he can make USC work last season.
In the Coliseum matchup, Iamaleava helped UCLA grab a 10-7 halftime lead before the Trojans took over after the break and won 29-10. He finished that game with 200 passing yards and a touchdown on 27-of-38 passing.
USC has had the upper hand in the rivalry under Lincoln Riley, going 3-1 against UCLA in his four seasons. The Trojans have won the last two meetings, while UCLA’s most recent victory came in 2023, when the Bruins stunned USC 38-20 in Caleb Williams’ final season.
The all-time series still leans heavily toward USC, which leads 52-34-7. The last time the Trojans put together a three-game winning streak in the rivalry was from 2015 to 2017, during the Sam Darnold and Clay Helton era.
Still, this game fits into a much larger picture for USC. Riley’s team is trying to break through and reach the CFP for the first time in program history and during his tenure, and a loss to UCLA would be a damaging way to end the regular season. The Trojans’ three regular-season losses last year came on the road against Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon, which is part of why a trip to the Rose Bowl carries real danger.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently lists USC at 8.5 projected wins, a number that likely falls short of what it would take to reach the CFP. To get there, the Trojans may need more than just a win over UCLA.
They’ll probably need an upset over one of Oregon on Sept. 26, Ohio State on Oct. 31 or Indiana on Nov.
- Two of those games, against Oregon and Ohio State, are at the Coliseum.
Last season’s USC-UCLA game finished with 39 total points, as the Trojans beat the Bruins 29-10 and covered the 21.5-point spread while the under on 59.5 hit. This year’s line suggests a different kind of scoring pace, and with the Rose Bowl setting the stage, the rivalry is lined up for another high-profile finish.
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