Lincoln Riley’s Name Keeps Surfacing, But USC Still Looks Like Home
Lincoln Riley has spent the past few weeks batting down rumors about his future at USC, and yet, his name just won’t leave the coaching carousel. Despite his public denials, Riley continues to be linked to some of the biggest openings in college football-including the vacancy at Penn State.
Now, let’s be clear: the odds of Riley actually landing in Happy Valley are slim. According to Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, Riley currently holds just a four percent chance of becoming the next head coach of the Nittany Lions.
That number isn’t exactly headline-grabbing, but the movement behind it is what turned heads. On November 30, Riley’s odds briefly surged to 21 percent, making him the betting favorite for the job-if only for a moment-before falling back down to one percent and eventually settling around four.
That spike was enough to stir up fresh questions in Los Angeles. Is Penn State really trying to make a run at Riley?
The Nittany Lions’ coaching search has taken longer than many expected. After parting ways with James Franklin-who has since taken the Virginia Tech job-Penn State reportedly explored options like Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Nebraska’s Matt Rhule. But both coaches have since signed extensions, narrowing the field and potentially prompting Penn State to reset its target list.
That’s when Riley’s name re-entered the picture.
According to college football insider Todd McShay, Riley is viewed internally as a “major target” for Penn State. On The McShay Show, he shared a detail that raised some eyebrows: Riley isn’t represented by powerhouse agent Jimmy Sexton.
That matters because Sexton represented Franklin during his time at Penn State-a tenure that came with hefty extensions and even heftier buyouts. So if Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft is looking outside Sexton’s circle this time around, Riley becomes a more intriguing target.
But here’s where things get real.
Riley is under contract at USC through 2031, thanks to a massive 10-year, $110 million deal signed in 2021. His reported buyout?
North of $90 million. That’s not just a financial hurdle-it’s a mountain.
Even for a program as well-resourced as Penn State, stepping into a nine-figure commitment for a coach under contract would be one of the most expensive moves in college football history.
And Riley isn’t exactly fueling the fire. When speculation swirled around the Florida Gators job earlier this season, Riley didn’t hesitate to shut it down.
“Oh yeah, 100 percent,” Riley said when asked if he was staying at USC. “Like I said before, I’m right where I’m supposed to be.
I think nothing other than what we’re building. I love being here.”
After USC’s win over UCLA, he doubled down on that message, emphasizing his long-term vision for the Trojans.
And why wouldn’t he? USC finished the season 9-3, a solid leap forward from last year’s 7-6 campaign.
The roster is built in Riley’s image, and the Trojans are heading into their Big Ten era with momentum-and one of the top-rated recruiting classes in the country. This is a program on the rise, not one in flux.
Sure, Riley’s name is going to keep popping up. That’s what happens when you’re a proven winner with national brand appeal.
Big jobs will always come calling. But when you look at the numbers, the timing, and the coach’s own words, the picture becomes clearer: Lincoln Riley isn’t going anywhere.
Penn State may want him. But landing him would take more than interest-it would take a historic financial leap.
And right now, there’s no real sign that leap is coming. The rumors will keep swirling, but the reality?
USC is still Lincoln Riley’s home.