Oregon’s response to its Week 2 stumble was as emphatic as it gets, but the betting market still wasn’t moved.
The No. 20 Ducks rolled back into Autzen Stadium six days after a 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State and buried Portland State 84-0, setting the largest margin of victory in the 132-year history of the program. Dan Lanning’s team looked sharp everywhere and showed almost no cracks in the blowout.
Even so, the numbers at BetMGM kept sliding the wrong way. Oregon opened the season at +700 to win the national championship, then dropped to +2000 after the loss in Stillwater. After the record-setting win over the Vikings, the Ducks fell again to +2500 after the first three weeks of the season.
The movement has been similar elsewhere. FanDuel moved Oregon from +2200 to +2500, while DraftKings shifted the Ducks from +1800 to +2200. Oregon’s implied title probability has gone from 12.5 percent in the preseason to 3.8 percent now.
That dip hasn’t come because of the Portland State result itself. The bigger reason is that other teams have surged in the race.
Ole Miss made the biggest jump after beating No. 10 LSU at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, with BetMGM moving the Rebels up to +1700.
LSU sits at +1500, while Texas Tech is right in between Ole Miss and Oregon at +2000. Oregon is now listed outside the top tier and rounds out the top 10.
The books made a similar adjustment for Ole Miss across the board, with DraftKings putting the Rebels at +1500 and FanDuel at +1800.
Here’s how the current field stacks up at BetMGM: Ohio State +550, Texas +600, Notre Dame +650, Georgia +700, Miami +800, Indiana +900, LSU +1500, Ole Miss +1700, Texas Tech +2000, Oregon +2500.
The Ducks still have a chance to change that picture quickly. Week 4 sends them to Los Angeles for a matchup with No. 12 USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, and it gives Oregon its first shot to climb back into the championship conversation.
The gap between Oregon and USC has tightened a lot since the preseason. BetMGM had Oregon at +700 and the Trojans at +4000 before the season; now the Ducks are +2500 and USC is +3000. FanDuel lists Oregon at +2500 and USC at +5500, while DraftKings has Oregon at +2200 and USC at +3300.
Saturday’s game offers both teams a chance to improve their standing, and another Oregon loss could push the Ducks even further down the board. For two programs that have been moving closer together in the title picture, this is the first real chance to create some separation.
In Other News...
USC Now Faces A Different Oregon Offense Than Expected
Oregons passing game took an unexpected turn before its meeting with Portland State, when junior wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan broke his foot in warmups and was ruled out indefinitely. The injury forced the Ducks to adjust on the fly, and freshman Messiah Hampton filled some of the opening with 71 receiving yards and two touchdowns, giving Oregon a different look than the one USC likely spent part of the week preparing for.
The matchup now brings another wrinkle for the Trojans, because Oregon is also expected to have tight ends Kendre Harrison and Jamari Johnson available for the upcoming game. With McClellan sidelined and Hampton suddenly in a bigger role, USC has to account for an offense that is already shifting in real time, and the Ducks may keep leaning on personnel groupings and targets that werent central to the original scouting report. [Read more 🡒]
USC Heads Into Oregon Week With A Secondary Problem Fans Feared
USCs secondary is suddenly a point of concern as the Trojans turn the page from their win over Rutgers and into a far bigger test against Oregon. Alex Graham and Jontez Williams both picked up injuries in that game, and Lincoln Riley acknowledged after the fact that each is dealing with an issue while the staff waits to see how they respond in the days ahead.
The timing is less than ideal, given how much the matchup with Oregon asks of a defense on the back end. USC is already sorting through replacement options and monitoring both players closely, with the hope that neither absence becomes a longer-term problem. For now, though, it leaves the Trojans heading into the week with one of the concerns fans were bracing for. [Read more 🡒]
USC Offensive Line Gets An Early Chance To Expose Oregon Concern
Oregons eye-popping 84-point outing against Portland State grabbed the headlines, but the Ducks defensive front came out of that game with a few questions attached. They didnt record a sack and had limited tackles for loss, which is the sort of detail USC will notice quickly as it prepares for the matchup ahead. For a Trojan offensive line looking to set a tone, its an early opening to see how much resistance Oregon can actually create up front.
From USCs perspective, this is more than just another test on the schedule. The Trojans front has a chance to probe a unit that didnt consistently disrupt Portland State and force Oregon to prove it can hold up against a more physical attack. If USC can protect the pocket and win the line of scrimmage, it could turn a concern for the Ducks into a real edge for the Trojans when the game arrives. [Read more 🡒]