Last week’s batch of bold calls landed more often than not, and this week’s slate offers a fresh round of swings. Three of the four predictions from the first weekend of October came through: Missouri rolled Florida, Jeremiah Smith went off for 11 catches, 206 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa, and Minnesota took back the Little Brown Jug. BYU also got the win, though not by the blowout margin that was forecast.
Now comes another crack at the weekend ahead, with the same no-safety-net approach.
Start with the two road favorites sitting at 7.5 points: Indiana at Nebraska and Texas in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. Both matchups carry just enough wiggle room for a weird result, and both opponents are unranked, which only sharpens the upset watch.
Nebraska’s case is built on the idea that Matt Rhule’s team keeps getting underrated; ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the Cornhuskers at No. 12 in SP+. Oklahoma’s argument comes from the other side of the ball, with a defense ranked No. 2 in the SEC by yardage ready to bother a Texas offense that sits No. 12 in the league by that same measure.
Penn State gets the White Out treatment, but the bigger question is whether the Nittany Lions have actually shown their best version yet in year one under Matt Campbell. The defense, in particular, still feels like it has more to give.
Yes, the 413 yards allowed to Northwestern last Friday made noise, but Penn State also held Wisconsin to 120, and that’s the number worth leaning on. If the Wildcats outing really was the outlier, the Nittany Lions should be able to handle Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava well enough to keep control.
That sets up a much-needed rebound chance for Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht against a USC defense that should be vulnerable. Becht has had two rough weeks, but this looks like the kind of spot where he can reset. The call here is three touchdown passes, plus an interception and a fumble, with Penn State surviving a messy one 35-21.
One prediction doesn’t try to hide what it is: a record is in real danger. Sheppard enters the week as the nation’s third-leading rusher, and he draws the ACC’s worst run defense in Georgia Tech, which is giving up 189 yards a game on the ground.
The weather only adds to the setup, with remnants of Hurricane Isaias expected to bring rain to Atlanta and make the passing game harder to lean on. Duke running back Mataeo Durant owns the school’s single-game rushing record at 255 yards against Charlotte in 2021, but that mark is in jeopardy here.
The forecast is Sheppard topping it and becoming part of FBS’s 10th 300-yard rushing game of the decade.
The final call goes to NC State, a team that has already taken the long road back from two brutal early losses - a blowout at Virginia on Aug. 29 and a last-second collapse against Vanderbilt on Sept. 19.
That kind of start can flatten a season, but the Wolfpack’s win over Louisville last Saturday was enough to register as a surprise and shift the mood. Against Wake Forest, that momentum should matter.
NC State’s defense is still a mess - 89th in scoring - but the offenses in this rivalry matchup are close enough that the game could come down to details, and the weather should help keep things tight. Quarterback CJ Bailey has thrown an interception in three straight games, but this time the prediction is that he avoids the turnover.
The Wolfpack also lean on backup quarterback Will Wilson, who has six rushing touchdowns, as a useful complement. Put it together and NC State walks away with a 24-17 win.
In Other News...
Lincoln Riley's USC Future Comes With A Massive Catch
Lincoln Rileys long-term future at USC has come with the kind of contract language that makes any coaching discussion feel more complicated than usual. He signed a 10-year deal in 2022 worth around $110 million, and while the school clearly made a massive commitment to him, the numbers around that pact have also helped frame every conversation about where the program goes next.
The catch is the buyout, which is believed to land somewhere in the $50 million to $60 million range, even if the exact figure is not public. With Rileys record sitting at 40-19 and attendance issues hanging over the season, USC is in the familiar spot of balancing patience, expectations and the reality of how expensive a coaching change would be. [Read more 🡒]
Jayden Maiava Just Gave USC Fans A New Reason To Watch Saturday
Jayden Maiava has become one of the more intriguing names on USCs radar this fall, not just because of what hes doing for the Trojans, but because of what it could mean beyond college. As he moves through his final season, the NFL is already taking notice, and ESPN analyst Field Yates recently put Maiava in a conversation that should catch USC fans attention by comparing his throwing ability to former Trojan Sam Darnold.
The timing only adds to the intrigue, with USC heading into a pivotal game against Penn State that carries real weight for bowl eligibility and the postseason picture. For a team still trying to sort out where this season can go, Maiavas rise gives the Trojans another layer of stakes to watch, and another reason the next stretch matters well beyond the standings. [Read more 🡒]
USC Walks Into A White Out Scene Trojans Fans Will Notice
More than 200 Penn State students were already set up outside Beaver Stadium at Gate A, turning the White Out buildup into a familiar college-football scene even with the Nittany Lions coming in off a two-game skid. The student-run tent city known as Nittanyville got its campout rolling Tuesday, giving the USC trip a backdrop that says plenty about how seriously Penn State treats these nights, and how quickly the atmosphere can go from concern to full-throttle optimism.
Theres also a bigger feeling around the place under new head coach Matt Campbell, with the students talking openly about a season turnaround and hoping this game can help spark it. If Penn State takes care of business, the group plans to be part of the on-field celebrations, which is exactly the kind of detail Trojan fans should clock as they walk into one of the sports loudest road environments. [Read more 🡒]