USC’s season hit a rough patch in a hurry Saturday night, and Lincoln Riley’s margin for error is suddenly looking awfully thin.
The No. 16 Trojans were beaten 24-7 at Wisconsin in a game that exposed just how badly the offense stalled coming out of an open date.
USC’s lone touchdown drive came in the second quarter, and the rest of the night never found much life. The Trojans entered the game with the Big Ten’s seventh-best rushing attack, but left Madison with minus-17 yards on 25 carries, sacks on Jayden Maiva included.
Maiva finished 31-of-50 for 258 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but he didn’t get much help from the ground game or anywhere else. The loss dropped USC to two defeats on the season, and the timing couldn’t be worse with the toughest stretch of the Big Ten schedule still ahead.
Top-10 Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA are all waiting in the final four games, and this defeat came at a point when USC really could not afford one. Riley is now 41-20 overall in his fifth season, and the path back into College Football Playoff contention is getting narrower.
The Trojans have already beaten three Big Ten opponents whose conference records combine to 3-10, and that’s part of the problem: there still hasn’t been much evidence USC can handle stronger competition. Riley’s record against top-25 teams at USC sits at 5-15, which makes the comeback path look even steeper.
That gap between the public expectations and the results has only grown since the summer, when Riley talked boldly about where the program stood.
“The expectations haven't changed, but I think our opportunity to seize that and (win) to me is more real right now than it's probably been in the first few years,” Riley said. “The alignment and momentum in the program is real, palpable.
We feel it. Our recruits feel it.
Our team feels it. Our fanbase feels it.
I think a lot of people across the country feel it, whether they like us or not. That's how it should be at USC.”
After Saturday, the question is whether that momentum still exists in any meaningful way.
Riley’s contract is private, but CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz has reported a buyout estimated at around $70 million. That kind of number makes any firing a serious business decision, but the bigger question is whether it becomes more costly to keep rolling with the status quo. Even with next season’s expected 24-team playoff making the road a little more forgiving, nine wins would not feel like a sure ticket into the expanded field.
This wasn’t the first warning sign, either. USC’s 41-27 loss to Oregon last month already hinted at trouble, especially since it came against what was described as Dan Lanning’s worst team so far. That defeat stung because it followed a 4-0 start that pushed the Trojans into the top 15.
Saturday’s performance in Madison felt even harder to explain. Riley knows the job at USC comes with high expectations, and it has already been widely reported this season that he may not be safe if the Trojans miss out on a College Football Playoff trip.
With Ohio State and Indiana still looming before rivalry weekend next month, the pressure is only going to keep building.
In Other News...
USC Is Chasing A Local Recruiting Win Lincoln Riley Needs
USCs push for the 2028 class already has a local name at the center of it, and CaRon Williams has become one of the early targets worth tracking. The four-star defensive back has drawn attention from a long list of heavy hitters, but the Trojans have a built-in advantage with multiple visits to campus already under his belt, giving Lincoln Riley and his staff a chance to sell him on staying close to home.
For a program trying to build momentum early in that cycle, landing a player like Williams would matter well beyond one commitment. USC currently has just one pledge in the 2028 class, and the Trojans are expected to ramp up their recruiting efforts in the spring of 2027, which makes this a situation to watch as the next stage of the process gets going. [Read more 🡒]
USC Suddenly Has A Big Ten Path Fans Need To See
USCs move into the Big Ten has already changed the way the Trojans are judged, but the league slate still has room for a rivalry twist that would have sounded far-fetched a year ago. With UCLA also in the conference now, the possibility of the two former Pac-12 rivals meeting in the Big Ten Championship Game is no longer just a talking point for nostalgics. It is the kind of path that gives the rest of the season an extra layer of meaning, especially with both programs trying to finish strong and keep themselves in the title chase.
For UCLA, the loss of starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava reshapes the equation, while USC is focused on what its own schedule and key contributors can still produce down the stretch. The conference race is tight enough that both teams have to keep stacking wins to stay in range, and the matchup possibilities only get more interesting from there. If the pieces continue to fall a certain way, the Big Ten could end up with a championship game that once belonged only to old conference lore. [Read more 🡒]
Former Utah Star Took A Fresh Shot At USC Before Wisconsin
Before Wisconsin ever lined up across from USC, Dalton Kincaid was already leaning into an old Pac-12 rivalry that never seemed to lose its edge. The former Utah tight end, now with the Buffalo Bills, made his feelings clear on the October 24 edition of ESPN College GameDay, publicly taking a shot at USC and backing the Badgers to pull the upset.
Kincaid pointed back to Utahs history of success against the Trojans, including that 43-42 win in 2022, as part of why he liked Wisconsins chances. It was a pointed pick against a USC team that entered the matchup as a slight favorite, and it added another layer to a game already carrying some extra intrigue. [Read more 🡒]