USC is at the point where the excuses have started to run thin, and Josh Pate thinks Lincoln Riley is out of runway.
The college football analyst made it plain on “Josh Pate's College Football Show,” saying the Trojans’ season has become a simple referendum on whether Riley can finally get them into the College Football Playoff. After four years in Los Angeles, Pate sees this as the first USC team that should reasonably be expected to do it.
"I'd look at USC," Pate said. "I think it's really pretty cut and dry at USC this year.
Either they make the playoff or they're probably looking for a new head coach... I think this is probably the first time that they've got the team that is reasonably expected to do that."
That kind of pressure comes with the territory at a place like USC, especially after the way Riley was sold when he arrived before the 2022 season. He was supposed to be the answer for a program with a giant history but no real foothold in the playoff era.
The early returns were promising. Riley’s first season ended at 11-3, with USC reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game and Caleb Williams winning the Heisman Trophy. Even then, the Trojans fell just short of the playoff.
Year 2 brought a much different result. With Williams back and USC opening the season ranked No. 6, the Trojans slipped to 8-5 and never got close to a playoff spot.
The slide continued in Year 3, when USC finished 7-6. Last season was better at 9-4, a step forward, but still nowhere near the standard expected of the program.
Now entering his fifth year, Riley is 35-18 at USC. Before coming west, he had built a strong résumé at Oklahoma, going 55-10 over five seasons, winning four Big 12 championships and reaching the College Football Playoff three straight times. He also earned a reputation for running some of the most explosive offenses in the sport.
But at USC, the conversation has changed. The job is no longer about patience. It’s about results.
With a talented roster and rising expectations entering 2026, Riley has fewer excuses than at any point in his USC tenure. If the Trojans finally break through and make the playoff, he can quiet plenty of the noise around his job status.
If they don’t, Pate’s warning could become the story. One of college football’s biggest jobs may be looking for a new head coach again.
In Other News...
USC Is In A Battle It Cannot Afford To Lose For Local Star
Hayden Koo has become one of the more closely watched local names in USCs recruiting orbit, and for good reason. The four-star wide receiver from Tustin has drawn attention from a long list of programs that includes Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, BYU, Stanford and UCLA, but the Trojans have made a clear push of their own as they try to keep one of Southern Californias better prospects close to home. Koo was on campus for The Opening Finals and later took part in an invite-only USC prospect camp, where he worked out with coach Chad Savage and came away with an offer.
The next stretch of the recruiting calendar could matter a lot here, because Koo is planning to take game-day visits this season even though nothing is locked in yet. USC is one of the schools he wants to see, and the late-September home date against Oregon is already on his radar, which gives the Trojans a chance to make a stronger impression in front of a local target who still has plenty of options. For USC, the appeal is obvious: keeping a top California receiver from drifting elsewhere is exactly the kind of battle it cannot afford to lose. [Read more 🡒]
USC Could Catch Wisconsin In A Coach's Most Desperate Game
Lincoln Rileys seat at USC still draws plenty of attention, but the more fragile situation in this matchup belongs to Wisconsin and Luke Fickell. The Badgers have gone through two straight down years, and after the rough 2025 season, plenty of observers expected a change. Instead, Wisconsin is trying to buy time and stability, while USC enters the game with the kind of expectation that usually comes with being the more talented team on paper.
For the Trojans, that makes this one feel less like a toss-up and more like a chance to keep a struggling opponent from finding any footing. USC is expected to handle Wisconsin, and anything short of that would raise immediate questions about where this program is headed under Riley. For Fickell, the pressure is even more immediate, because the margin for error in Madison has already shrunk to the point where every game now feels like part of a final exam. [Read more 🡒]
USC Ace Mason Edwards Just Delivered A Huge Draft Moment
Mason Edwards rise at USC ended with the kind of draft moment that confirms just how far his college career came. After missing most of the 2025 season because of injury, the former Trojans pitcher returned in 2026 and turned himself into one of the most dominant arms in the country, finishing with 8 wins, a 2.07 ERA and 15.9 strikeouts per nine innings while anchoring USCs staff.
The season also brought national recognition, with Edwards emerging as a finalist for the National Pitcher of the Year Award and earning Baseball Americas pitcher of the year honor. His performance made him the highest-drafted USC player since Brad Boxberger in 2009, and now he heads into the Athletics minor league system with the sort of momentum that can change the early shape of a pro career. [Read more 🡒]