USC’s 2026 season is already sitting at an interesting number: 8.5 wins at BetMGM Sportsbook. On paper, that puts the Trojans in a spot where nine wins is absolutely within reach. But the schedule also hands them three games that could easily swing the other way and leave them staring at a 9-3 finish.
The start should be smooth enough. USC is projected to win its first four games, and that includes a road trip to Piscataway where the Trojans are expected to handle Rutgers. That stretch should give Riley and company a chance to settle in, build some rhythm, and figure out who the key pieces really are before the season starts tightening up.
Then comes the part where the margin shrinks fast. USC gets two huge games in the Coliseum that will say plenty about its playoff case and about what Gary Patterson’s defense really is.
The first major obstacle is Oregon in week 4, a game that already has the feel of a revenge spot for USC. Last season, Ducks quarterback Dante Moore and the Oregon offense carved up the Trojans for 436 yards, including 179 on the ground, in a 42-27 win. This time around, Oregon’s balance, Moore’s play, and an elite defensive front seven - including former Trojan Bear Alexander - look like the recipe for USC’s first loss.
The other heavyweight home game comes on Halloween, when Ohio State visits the Coliseum for the first time since 2008. That last trip ended badly for the Buckeyes in a 35-3 loss to top-ranked USC, but this year’s Ohio State group arrives loaded.
The offense is headlined by quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, while the bigger concern may be on the other side of the ball with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s unit. Ohio State finished last season with the nation’s top-ranked defense, and even though it has only three defensive returners this year, the combination of Buckeye pressure and USC’s offense could turn this into a tight one - maybe one decided by a field goal.
The toughest road trip may be the one to Bloomington. Since USC joined the Big Ten in 2024, a game there looked harmless on paper until Curt Cignetti’s team turned Indiana into something much more dangerous.
The defending national champions are bringing a new look in 2026, too, with TCU transfer Josh Hoover stepping in at quarterback for Fernando Mendoza and Boston College transfer Turbo Richard expected to lead the backfield. Add Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh and returner Charlie Becker, and USC’s secondary has plenty to sort out.
By the time the Trojans get to that mid-November matchup, they could already be carrying two losses, with a College Football Playoff berth hanging in the balance. Road games were a problem last season, when all four of USC’s regular-season losses came away from home. Even with road wins at Penn State and Wisconsin, the prediction here is that Bloomington becomes another trip where the Trojans come up short.
Put it all together and USC lands at 9-3, which would clear the win total but likely leave the Trojans on the outside of the playoff picture. That kind of finish would also turn up the heat on Lincoln Riley heading into his fifth season in Los Angeles. With expectations climbing and room for mistakes shrinking, 2026 could end up being the most demanding year of his USC run.
In Other News...
USC Practice Just Raised Two Big Questions About This Team
USCs 12th practice of camp brought the kind of energy coaches usually love to see in August, with the Trojans working at a high intensity while continuing to build the kind of habits that matter once the season starts. Lincoln Riley said the running game and the defensive front seven drew his attention, and the defense has stood out enough in practice to make that unit one of the more interesting parts of camp. Even with Kilian OConnor sidelined by a season-ending injury, he remains around the program in a leadership and mentoring role, which has helped keep the group connected.
The other notable wrinkle has been a new effort to make practice feel less like practice, with USC testing a surround-sound crowd-noise setup on the fields to force better communication and cut down on mistakes. Special teams has its own unresolved issue as well, with Ryon Sayeri and Caden Chittenden still competing for the kicking job. The Trojans do at least have one part of that picture settled for now, even if the rest of the decision remains open. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Still Has Time To Make A Push For Trey Wright
A key quarterback target in the 2028 cycle is nearing the end of his recruitment, and USC is firmly in the mix. Three-star quarterback Trey Wright has drawn offers from Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, along with Oregon, Arizona, Kentucky and SMU, a group that underscores how widely he is being tracked as his college decision comes into focus.
Wright plans to reveal his commitment on Saturday, giving each program one last chance to make its case before the picture clears. For USC, the timing matters because Riley has taken a selective approach at the position, and Wright could end up being the Trojans quarterback addition for that class if the recruitment breaks their way. [Read more 🡒]
Lincoln Riley Faces A Risky USC Kicker Decision Before Week 1
USCs special teams picture is still taking shape as fall camp winds down, with Lincoln Riley keeping the competition between Caden Chittenden and Ryon Sayeri very much alive. Both kickers have been tested hard throughout camp, and while Sayeri is set to handle kickoffs this season, the more pressure-packed field goal and PAT work remains unsettled as the Trojans head toward Week 1.
Chittenden stayed at USC and kept competing after losing the job to an injury last season, which has made this battle a little more layered than a simple open tryout. Riley has made it clear the staff wants answers before the games start counting, and for a team trying to avoid early-season special teams drama, the next few days could be a major sorting point. Outside the kicking competition, former Trojans Kamari Ramsey, Bishop Fitzgerald and Anthony Lucas also made their NFL preseason debuts, a reminder of how much USC talent is now trying to establish itself at the next level. [Read more 🡒]