Rece Davis thinks college football is heading toward a much leaner future when it comes to coaching buyouts, and his reason is simple: schools are going to start putting that money into their rosters instead.
On a recent College GameDay podcast episode, the ESPN host said the giant 10- and 11-year buyouts that have already drained hundreds of millions from athletic departments are likely to shrink in the years ahead.
"Logic tells me, and that might be dangerous in and of itself, that these buyouts are going to diminish over the next several years," Davis said on a recent College GameDay podcast episode. "The wiser play financially ... is to commit that level of money to your roster."
Davis said he expects college football to drift toward "a little bit more of an NFL coaching model," and called that shift "probably the wisest course of action" for where the sport is right now.
The timing of his comments fits the numbers. Schools were on the hook for a record $228 million in buyouts to 15 fired head coaches in 2025, the biggest total in college athletics history. Since 2004, more than $1.1 billion has gone to fired coaches.
Former LSU coach Brian Kelly had the largest number attached to him at $54 million, which ranks as the second-biggest buyout in college football history behind the $76 million Texas A&M owed Jimbo Fisher in 2023. After Kelly came Penn State’s James Franklin at $49 million, Florida’s Billy Napier at $21 million, Auburn’s Hugh Freeze at $15.8 million and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy at $15 million.
A buyout is the guaranteed money a school still owes a coach it fires without cause, usually a big chunk of the salary left on the deal. Kelly signed a 10-year, $95 million contract in Baton Rouge, and LSU owed him 90% of what remained after it fired him in October 2025. The school later tried to classify the move as a firing for cause, and Kelly sued to collect his buyout.
Some contracts can also shrink the damage if the coach lands another job. Franklin’s agreement required him to search for work, and once he took over at Virginia Tech, Penn State’s obligation dropped from $49 million to $9 million.
Davis’ point is that those checks are getting harder to justify when the same money could help build the roster. Under the House settlement, schools can share a maximum of $21.3 million with athletes in 2026-27, which means Franklin’s original buyout would have covered more than two full years of that cap.
Even with all that money changing hands, no FBS program had fired its head coach through September. Still, pressure has been building in a few places, including South Carolina, where Shane Beamer landed on the college football hot seat index after Week 5. USC’s Lincoln Riley, though, is the name carrying the heaviest price tag.
CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz reported that Riley’s future came under "serious question" after USC’s 41-27 home loss to Oregon on Sept. 26, and the number attached to any move is massive: roughly $70 million. Riley signed a 10-year, $110 million contract and is 5-15 against ranked opponents with the Trojans.
Davis said USC has to look at the bigger picture, especially after the Trojans beat Washington 25-21 last week and moved to 5-1 heading into Penn State.
"Have they underperformed relative to expectations and hopes? Yes.
Have they appeared a little soft at times in the past? Absolutely.
Have they stunk? No, they haven't," Davis said.
"So I think the determining factor is: Have you lost the team, and do you feel like you have any momentum as a program?"
He said that momentum "was lost last year at Penn State" under Franklin and pointed to Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz as a coach who has repeatedly steadied things, adding, "Very few coaches can do it."
"That's what USC has to decide with Lincoln Riley," Davis said. "And I think they should be very careful because rosters are paramount, and they've got freshman dudes."
Those freshmen make up the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class in the 2026 cycle.
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