Ohio State’s trip to USC did more than hand the Buckeyes a 30-18 loss. It also put Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman push in a tougher spot.
Coming out of the bye with Luke Fahey making his first start after Julian Sayin’s potential season-ending injury against Indiana, Ohio State’s offense never really found the gear it needed in Los Angeles. The Buckeyes weren’t completely shut down, but they also didn’t generate the kind of explosive plays that have fueled their season and kept Smith in the center of the Heisman conversation.
Smith still produced: 10 catches on 12 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. But for a player who entered the week as the clear favorite, it was a quieter night than the numbers might suggest.
A lot of that damage came late, after Ohio State was already chasing the game and trailing by three scores. Against a USC defense that had been one of the Big Ten’s weakest at stopping explosive plays, that was a missed chance.
The odds reflected it. Smith dropped to third at FanDuel Sportsbook at +340, falling behind Miami’s Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney.
Fahey’s first start didn’t exactly open the floodgates for Smith. He finished 21-of-38 for 260 yards and a touchdown, but the passing game leaned heavily on short and intermediate throws. That kept the offense moving in spots, though it also limited the chances for Smith to do what he’s done all season: turn routine targets into chunk gains.
The weather in L.A. may have played a part, but the deep ball just wasn’t there. Smith, who had been averaging just under 19 yards per catch, managed only 8.3 yards per reception against USC.
When Fahey did try to push it downfield, the results were shaky. One of the biggest missed opportunities came on a potential long touchdown to Smith, who had two steps on his defender before slipping while trying to adjust to an underthrown ball.
USC had entered the game having allowed 11 passes of 30 yards or more, but Smith’s longest catch was 27 yards. And the road only gets harder from here in that department. Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan are still left on Ohio State’s schedule, and each has been better than USC at limiting explosive pass plays.
That leaves Smith in a tricky spot. Early in the season, his Heisman case and Ohio State’s offensive identity were moving in the same direction, with Sayin looking to attack downfield to Smith.
With Fahey now in the mix, the Buckeyes may lean more on the run when they can and keep the passing game simpler to help their young quarterback settle in. That’s understandable, but it changes the math for Smith.
Solid games may not be enough anymore.
Miami, meanwhile, is moving the other way. The Hurricanes’ defense has forced them into shootouts, which keeps their stars front and center.
Mensah took over as the Heisman favorite at +170 after going 22-for-29 for 274 yards and three touchdowns in a win over UNC in Chapel Hill. Toney was quieter by comparison with seven catches for 75 yards, but he scored twice, including the game-sealing touchdown late.
Now Notre Dame is next for Miami, and that matchup could shape the Heisman race again. Smith’s path back to the top may depend as much on what the Irish defense does as on anything Ohio State can control.
If Notre Dame can slow Miami’s stars, Smith gets another opening. If not, the gap may grow.
Smith is still on track to leave Columbus as the best receiver in Big Ten history, and he has a case as one of the best college football has seen in recent memory. But if he’s going to become one of the rare receivers to win the Heisman, the road just got steeper.
He’ll need better quarterback play, some help from Miami’s opponents, and a few more big after-the-catch moments to keep his campaign alive. For the first time all season, he’s no longer the favorite.
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