Jayden Maiava keeps getting treated like the quarterback left standing outside the first-round conversation, but the tape and production say he belongs much closer to the top of this draft class.
With plenty of college football left, NFL draft experts have already settled on a short list of quarterbacks expected to go early. Maiava, the USC starter, still isn’t being included the way he should be. And compared with the names being pushed ahead of him, he stacks up better than most of them.
Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State may be the current favorite in the eyes of many evaluators. He’s having a strong season, with 1,940 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and his athleticism showed against Oregon when he ran for 109 yards on 6 carries.
He’s also the more proven prospect right now. But even with Maiava’s rise, Mestemaker is still viewed as the better quarterback prospect at this moment.
The gap gets much narrower with Dante Moore. Oregon has not gotten the same version of Moore this season, and he has struggled badly in the opportunities he has had.
Maiava has been steadier, and the argument here tilts his way both on consistency and ceiling. At the very least, he belongs in the same tier.
Arch Manning, meanwhile, should be out of the first-round discussion altogether, at least for this draft. Beyond one strong second half against Ohio State, he has given more reasons for concern than optimism.
He has thrown for 1,295 yards with 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and that output falls well short of what Maiava has done. If Manning turns in another poor performance, he could even be benched for a true freshman quarterback.
Trinidad Chambliss of Mississippi is the one quarterback on this list the source gives the edge over Maiava. Chambliss is labeled the best quarterback in the nation, and the only real concern mentioned is his height.
He has 1,676 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and 6 rushing touchdowns. The case for him is built on athleticism, arm talent, poise and his ability to make every throw, including NFL throws in the biggest moments.
CJ Carr of Notre Dame is another name with a strong statistical resume: 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and just 1 interception. He’s described as a prototype game manager who thrives in a good system and with great consistency.
But the comparison leans toward Maiava because he can lift a weaker offense. The USC quarterback has carried the Trojans’ offense all season and projects more like a franchise-leading quarterback than a passer who needs everything around him to be right.
That’s the bottom line here: out of the five quarterbacks projected to go in the first round ahead of Maiava, only two are clearly better right now. He still has time to prove more this season, but he’s already shown enough over the past year and a half to deserve much more respect. The upside is real, and so is the first-round talent.
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