College football’s favorite trick is simple: the giant slips on the same banana peel, and everybody remembers it.
That’s the backdrop for a Saturday full of ranked matchups, where several top teams are heading into games against opponents they’ve controlled for years - until one upset changed the script. Ohio State, Georgia and Notre Dame all know that story well. So do the coaches who were around when it happened.
Ryan Day, now leading Ohio State, was part of the staff in 2017 when Iowa crushed a third-ranked Buckeyes team 55-24 in Iowa City and wrecked playoff hopes. The Buckeyes have still owned the series overall, winning seven of the last eight and 15 of 17 against the Hawkeyes.
Day was asked about that loss Tuesday and said he remembered some specifics from it. He also noted that, beyond serving as a warning, it doesn’t really help with this week’s prep except as a reminder of how hard it is to play at Kinnick Stadium.
Georgia has its own scar from Vanderbilt: the 17-16 home loss to the Commodores in Kirby Smart’s first season, a result that still stands as the low point of that year. Georgia has beaten Vanderbilt six straight and 25 of 28 overall, but that defeat became the springboard for a run that included a national championship game appearance the next year, 11-plus wins in eight of the next nine seasons and two titles.
Notre Dame’s history with North Carolina includes a similar turning point. The Fighting Irish have won 11 of 12 and five straight since the Tar Heels’ 29-24 win in 2008, a defeat that helped send Charlie Weis into a steep slide. Notre Dame entered that game 4-1 and Weis seemed to be on the rebound after a rough three-win 2007, but the loss sparked an 11-20 stretch that cost him his job the following year.
Here’s how the weekend slate breaks down, with rankings and betting lines for FBS vs. FBS games:
Vanderbilt (plus 24 1/2) at No. 2 Georgia
The headline here is obvious: Vanderbilt five-star freshman QB Jared Curtis de-committed from Georgia in December, and now he’s headed into Sanford Stadium to face the team he backed away from. Pick: Georgia 38-21.
No. 3 Notre Dame (minus 21) at North Carolina
This is the first top-five team to play in Chapel Hill since a then-No. 2 Notre Dame team won by two touchdowns in 2020.
Carolina will have a hard time moving the ball against the country’s No. 1 defense. Pick: Notre Dame 42-10.
No. 4 Miami at Clemson (plus 16 1/2)
Clemson gave up seven pass plays of 20-plus yards in the opener against LSU, then only five total over the next three games. Miami’s Malachi Toney leads the nation’s co-leaders with 11 catches of 20 yards or more.
No. 5 Ohio State at Iowa (plus 14)
Iowa has a way of pulling opponents into its kind of game, which helps explain why the Hawkeyes have lost by two touchdowns or more at home only once since 2014. Pick: Ohio State 24-14.
No. 6 Indiana (minus 24 1/2) at Rutgers
Indiana got pushed at home by Northwestern and fell a spot in the poll for the second straight week. This is a chance to let off some steam against a much softer opponent. Pick: Indiana 52-14.
No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (plus 6)
This one features the SEC’s best homegrown quarterbacks in Keelon Brown and Kamario Taylor. Mississippi State is chasing its highest-ranked home win in 10 years. Pick: Mississippi State 35-31.
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (plus 5 1/2)
Florida’s Jadan Baugh-led ground game has been too much for everyone so far. Missouri, though, is giving up only 2.77 yards per carry, the third-best figure in the SEC. Pick: Missouri 27-24.
No. 10 BYU (minus 6 1/2) at TCU
TCU has only 23 points combined against its two Power Four opponents. BYU’s defense should be coming after Jaden Craig, who was sacked four times and threw two interceptions in the loss to UCF. Pick: BYU 33-17.
No. 12 Texas Tech (minus 12 1/2) at Colorado
Texas Tech is unbeaten and sitting in the top 15, but the Red Raiders still haven’t played their best football. Colorado might have peaked in its opener against Georgia Tech. Pick: Texas Tech 38-21.
Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (minus 7)
Watch Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon after he absorbed 10 sacks against Texas. That’s a lot for any quarterback to handle, especially a freshman. Pick: Tennessee 27-19.
Washington at No. 18 Southern California (minus 9 1/2)
This is Washington’s first road game. USC’s defense should at least get a break from the more dangerous offense it saw in Oregon, because the Huskies aren’t nearly that explosive.
UCF (plus 12 1/2) at No. 20 Houston
Keyone Jenkins is making his first road start for UCF with Alonza Barnett III injured. The team that runs it better should come out on top, and Houston does that a little better than the Knights. Pick: Houston 26-21.
Boston College at No. 21 SMU (minus 21)
SMU gets a little cushion for its rough first quarter against Missouri State last week. Kevin Jennings, who is completing 77% of his passes for 363 yards per game, is a lot to handle for Boston College as long as he protects the ball. Pick: SMU 48-24.
Utah State at No. 22 Boise State (minus 20 1/2)
Both teams made the move from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, but the result should look familiar. Boise State has won the last 10 meetings, and this one is expected to follow the same script. Pick: Boise State 35-10.
No. 24 Kentucky (plus 3) at South Carolina (minus 3)
Notre Dame transfer quarterback Kenny Minchey is finding his rhythm for Kentucky, which runs into a desperate South Carolina team with a coach under pressure and its best player suspended indefinitely after punching an opponent. Pick: Kentucky 27-26.
Bye weeks: No. 1 Texas, No.
9 Ole Miss, No. 13 Utah, No.
15 Oregon, No. 19 Oklahoma State, No.
23 UCLA. Also: No.
11 LSU vs. McNeese State.
Last week’s AP predictions scorecard: Straight-up 14-4; Against spread 12-6. Season: Straight-up 60-13; Against spread 36-36-1.
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For Drummond, this is also a return to a franchise he once watched from the outside as a Knicks fan, only now the responsibility is different. He is being asked to help fill the minutes and role left by Mitchell Robinson, and the fit could matter more than a routine roster move because New York is trying to stay at the top of a crowded race. The early sense around the team is that Drummonds experience gives them a real chance to keep the front line intact, even if the final answer will come only after he starts logging meaningful games in the rotation. [Read more 🡒]