UConn's journey for their seventh national championship kicks off this Friday night. The 2-seed Huskies are set to face the 15-seed Furman Paladins in Philadelphia.
Historically, 2-seeds have dominated these matchups, boasting a 149-11 record against 15-seeds. However, with the memory of Princeton's upset over Arizona in 2023 still fresh, anything can happen.
While FanDuel isn’t betting on a Furman upset, UConn's odds to win are slightly less favorable compared to other 2-seeds in the tournament.
FanDuel has set UConn's moneyline odds at -7000, which, while high, is lower than those for Houston, Iowa State, and Purdue. The spread for UConn's opening game is -20.5, with the over/under at 136.5.
The cautious odds for UConn don't reflect a lack of confidence in the Huskies but rather acknowledge Furman's potential. The Paladins are no strangers to the Cinderella story, having upset 4-seed Virginia as a 13-seed back in 2023 under head coach Bob Richey.
Furman brings significant size to the court, ranking as the fifth tallest team nationwide per KenPom, and they stand 30th in continuity. Their size and experience, along with standout freshman Alex Wilkins, make Furman a formidable opponent. So, what strategies should UConn employ to avoid an upset?
Contain Alex Wilkins
Wilkins has emerged as a star for Furman, earning a spot on the All-SoCon second team with an average of 17.7 points per game. He showcased his talent with a 34-point performance in the SoCon Tournament semifinals.
Standing at 6-foot-5, Wilkins presents a tough matchup for smaller guards. If Silas Demary Jr., one of the top perimeter defenders, can play, he'll have his hands full with Wilkins.
UConn should aim to force Wilkins to shoot from deep, where he connects just 32.2% of the time, making it harder for Furman to keep pace.
Dominate the Glass
Furman’s size is notable, with no starter shorter than 6-foot-5 and two 6-foot-11 bigs, Cooper Bowser and Charles Johnston, in the lineup. Bowser was instrumental in the SoCon Tournament title game, posting 21 points and 11 rebounds.
Johnston, although not an elite shooter, can stretch defenses with his ability to hit threes. Despite their size, Furman isn't an elite rebounding team.
UConn's frontcourt, led by Tarris Reed Jr., must control the boards to limit Furman's opportunities. Coach Dan Hurley might consider pairing Reed with freshman 7-footer Eric Reibe to counteract Furman's size.
Limit the Threes
Furman struggles from beyond the arc, shooting just 33.3% from three-point range. Only Asa Thomas shoots above 35% with over 100 attempts.
Yet, Furman relies heavily on threes, with 46.3% of their shots coming from deep. When they find their rhythm, as they did in the SoCon title game shooting 10-26, they become a tough opponent.
UConn's defense must push Furman off the three-point line, a strategy they've excelled at all season. By maintaining strong perimeter pressure, the Huskies can force Furman into the paint, reducing the risk of an upset.
One hot shooting night is all it takes for Furman to continue their Cinderella run, so UConn must stay vigilant.