In the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the excitement of March Madness has been somewhat muted by a lack of major upsets. Unlike last year when all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, this year's tournament is again dominated by the top seeds, with only a few surprises along the way.
As we approach the Sweet 16, the lowest seed still in the running is No. 11 Texas, who have managed to topple both BYU and Gonzaga. This year, the tournament has seen fewer underdog victories, with only six betting underdogs winning in the first round, slightly down from last year's seven.
Here's a quick look at the underdog victories:
- No. 12 High Point over No.
5 Wisconsin
- No.
11 VCU over No. 6 UNC
- No. 11 Texas over No.
6 BYU
- No.
10 Texas A&M over No. 7 Saint Mary's
- No. 9 TCU over No.
8 Ohio State
- No.
9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia
Notably absent from this list are No. 9 Iowa and No. 9 Utah State, whose wins over No. 8 seeds Clemson and Villanova, respectively, were expected.
High Point, as a No. 12 seed, delivered the biggest upset by defeating Wisconsin but couldn't advance past the second round, falling to No. 4 Arkansas. Meanwhile, Texas' journey to the Sweet 16 marks them as this year's closest "Cinderella" story, despite the overall lack of lower-seed triumphs.
The dominance of higher seeds is evident, with Power 4 conferences, including five Big Ten teams, clinching Sweet 16 spots. The expected dominance of top teams like Duke, Michigan, and Florida has largely held true, with pregame betting spreads illustrating their superiority. For instance, No. 1 seeds like Duke and Michigan had spreads of -28.5 and -30.5, respectively, against their first-round opponents.
While some top seeds like UConn, Michigan, and Duke faced closer games than anticipated, they still managed to fend off potential upsets. The bracket's structure this year hasn't favored the rise of significant underdogs, and the strength of teams like St. John's as a No. 5 seed further limited upset opportunities.
The current landscape of college basketball, influenced by factors like NIL and the transfer portal, might contribute to the consolidation of talent among top programs. However, the nature of March Madness ensures that future tournaments will likely bring the dramatic surprises fans cherish.
For now, the 2026 tournament continues to showcase the prowess of elite teams, with the expectation that the pendulum will swing back to upset-heavy tournaments in the coming years. As the Sweet 16 unfolds, fans will be watching to see if any remaining underdogs can defy the odds and deliver the magic that makes March Madness so thrilling.