In the whirlwind of college basketball analytics, one metric is making waves: Wins Above Bubble (WAB). As Selection Sunday approaches, understanding WAB could give fans a clearer picture of how teams stack up for NCAA Tournament bids.
WAB, introduced last season, evaluates a team's performance against its schedule compared to what an average bubble team would achieve. This metric isn't swayed by victory margins, focusing instead on pure accomplishments. According to NCAA senior vice president of basketball, Dan Gavitt, WAB played a crucial role in last year's selection, often correlating more with at-large selections than the traditional NET ranking.
Take last year's example: North Carolina snagged an at-large bid, ranking 42nd in WAB, just ahead of West Virginia at 43rd. The Tar Heels' WAB score of 0.79 edged out the Mountaineers' 0.78, highlighting UNC's slightly better performance against its schedule.
WAB's significance was underscored in the 2025 selection process, offering a fair comparison for teams with vastly different schedules. For instance, Miami University and Auburn were five spots apart in WAB rankings despite Miami's undefeated record and Auburn's 11 losses. This illustrates how WAB accounts for the strength of opponents and game locations, rewarding teams for challenging schedules.
Auburn's victory over Florida, a high-ranked NET team, earned a substantial 0.92 WAB score, reflecting the difficulty of winning such a matchup on the road. Conversely, Miami's wins in the MAC, while consistent, yield smaller WAB gains, though their undefeated streak has accumulated a solid 2.07 WAB score.
WAB isn't the sole factor in selection decisions, but it provides a valuable lens for evaluating resumes, particularly for bubble teams. Gavitt emphasizes the importance of comparing similar schedules to make informed decisions.
While NET remains a staple since its introduction in 2018-19, it's more about predicting team strength rather than evaluating resumes. UConn, for example, ranks 10th in NET but holds a strong WAB position due to key victories, illustrating the complementary nature of these metrics.
Ultimately, understanding both WAB and NET can offer a more comprehensive view of a team's standing, helping fans and analysts alike navigate the complexities of college basketball's postseason landscape.