College Football Playoff Betting Action Slow to Start, but Alabama-Oklahoma Clash Brings the Heat
As the College Football Playoff kicks off its expanded 12-team format, betting windows in Las Vegas are seeing more of a slow trickle than a stampede-at least for now. The opening round features a few intriguing matchups, but two lopsided spreads involving Group of Five teams have cooled the early enthusiasm for bettors.
Still, there’s one game that’s drawing plenty of attention: Alabama vs. Oklahoma.
And that one has all the makings of a classic.
Group of Five Underdogs Face Steep Odds
Let’s start with the elephant in the room-or, in this case, the Green Wave and the Dukes.
Tulane and James Madison, seeded 11th and 12th respectively, are both staring down the barrel of double-digit point spreads. Mississippi is favored by 17.5 points over Tulane, while Oregon is laying 20.5 against James Madison, according to BetMGM. Those numbers aren’t exactly sparking a frenzy at the sportsbooks.
“It’s not as hyped up and exciting as it has been in years prior,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “But I’m sure when we get to the next round, it’ll be exciting and we’ll garner a lot of handle there.”
Translation: fans and bettors are likely holding out for the matchups that feel more like heavyweight bouts and less like early-round tune-ups.
Alabama-Oklahoma: A Toss-Up with History
Now, if you’re looking for a game with real juice, circle Alabama at Oklahoma. This 8 vs. 9 seed clash has been the talk of the betting world all week, and for good reason. The line has been bouncing back and forth, and as of Thursday afternoon, the Sooners were slight 1.5-point favorites at home.
This will be the third meeting between these two programs in just over a year, with Oklahoma winning the previous two. That recent history-plus home-field advantage-has given the Sooners a slight edge in the eyes of oddsmakers. But don’t count out the Crimson Tide just yet.
Both teams come in with question marks. Alabama’s run game has sputtered against elite competition, bottoming out with a minus-3 yard showing in their SEC title game loss to Georgia. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, meanwhile, hasn’t quite looked like himself since returning from injury.
CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall summed it up: “The rematch thing kind of makes you like Alabama a little bit here, but I don’t know they look like they’re a threat to go any deeper than this round. They might get by this one, but they’re going to have to play a lot better than they have in the last month-certainly a lot better than they did against Georgia.”
Buckeyes Still the Betting Favorite
Don’t let the Big Ten title game loss to Indiana fool you-Ohio State remains the odds-on favorite to win it all. The Buckeyes are listed at +225 to win the national championship at BetMGM, just ahead of Indiana at +275. Georgia, the No. 3 seed, follows at +500.
This script feels familiar. Last year, Ohio State limped into the postseason after a loss to Michigan, only to flip the switch and dominate its way to a national title. Every playoff win came by double digits.
“Ohio State is the No. 1 most-bet team by a wide margin,” said BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee. “My prediction is Ohio State over Indiana. You saw it last year-Ohio State loses to Michigan, they lose to Indiana this year, but you see what this team is capable of come playoff time.”
When the lights get brightest, the Buckeyes tend to shine. That’s the belief driving the action.
Life Without Lane: Ole Miss Faces Uncertainty
One of the biggest storylines heading into the playoff is what Ole Miss will look like without Lane Kiffin on the sidelines. After accepting the LSU job, Kiffin reportedly wanted to coach the Rebels through the postseason-but the school said thanks, but no thanks.
That decision leaves a major question mark over a team that, under Kiffin, was seen as a dark horse title contender. They’re still expected to handle Tulane in the opening round, but beyond that?
The picture gets murky. Ole Miss is currently listed at 25-1 to win the national championship, behind eight other teams.
The biggest concern centers on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and whether he can continue his upward trajectory without Kiffin calling plays.
“Kiffin was so involved in the mechanics of that and the play calling,” Marshall noted. “(His absence) might actually hurt Ole Miss a bit.
It could work both ways. They could really galvanize and circle the wagons around (defensive coordinator and interim coach Pete) Golding, but I think the specifics without Kiffin the play caller could hurt Chambliss a little bit.”
Are Byes a Blessing or a Rust Trap?
This marks the second year of the 12-team playoff, and last season offered a surprising twist: all four teams that earned a first-round bye lost in the quarterfinals. That’s sparked some debate about whether the extended layoff-roughly three weeks-does more harm than good.
Feazel isn’t buying into that narrative just yet.
“That’s referring to a one-year trend,” he said. “We’re talking about (only) four games where that happened last year. … I think it still is an advantage to get a bye, especially just the time to prepare depending on the coach.”
He’s got a point. In a postseason where every edge matters, the extra time to rest, scout, and game-plan could prove invaluable-especially for teams with veteran coaching staffs who know how to use it.
So while the early betting action might be slow, the drama is just starting to build. Alabama-Oklahoma is shaping up to be a coin-flip classic, Ohio State is lurking as the postseason juggernaut we’ve seen before, and Ole Miss is stepping into the unknown without its offensive architect. The first round might not be loaded with nail-biters, but don’t blink-because the real fireworks are just around the corner.