With Bob Chesney taking over for UCLA, the first season of his tenure is still a month away, but the early numbers are already painting a pretty clear picture of what the Bruins are walking into in 2026.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has UCLA slotted 64th nationally and projects the Bruins to finish 5.1-6.9. The network also rolled out game-by-game win probabilities, and those numbers explain how it got there: UCLA is favored in only five of its 12 games.
The Bruins open at Cal on Sept. 5, where ESPN gives UCLA a 42.1% chance to win compared to Cal’s 57.9%. A week later, UCLA gets a slight edge at home against San Diego State on Sept. 12, with the Bruins at 52.9% and the Aztecs at 47.1%.
The next two games swing back the other way. UCLA is projected to beat Purdue on Sept. 19, with a 65.4% win probability, before heading to Maryland on Sept. 26 as a 35.4% underdog.
October brings one brutal matchup after another. ESPN gives UCLA just a 3.3% chance at Oregon on Oct. 10, then has the Bruins at 44.2% against Wisconsin at home on Oct.
- UCLA is favored against Michigan State on Oct. 24 at 62.4%, and then again versus Nevada on Oct. 31 at 86.2%.
The closing stretch is less forgiving. UCLA’s chances at Minnesota on Nov. 7 sit at 39.0%, followed by 43.3% at home against Illinois on Nov.
- The Bruins are massive underdogs at Michigan on Nov. 21, with an 8.4% chance, and then close the regular season against USC on Nov. 28 with a 13.9% shot.
Put all of that together, and the Bruins land at 5-7, which matches the FPI projection.
That’s not the only preseason model looking at UCLA. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, also from ESPN, have the Bruins 46th and project a 7-5 finish.
As always with preseason numbers, none of this is set in stone. ESPN’s FPI updates weekly during the season, so if UCLA outperforms these early projections, both the record forecast and the individual game odds will move in the Bruins’ favor.
In Other News...
Bob Chesney Faces UCLA's Real Test Much Sooner Than Fans Wanted
Bob Chesney arrives in Westwood with the kind of rsum UCLA fans can get behind, having guided James Madison to a Sun Belt Conference championship and a College Football Playoff berth before taking over for DeShaun Foster. The Bruins are already trying to absorb the habits that follow him, from the accountability and discipline he is expected to demand to the familiar faces he has brought over from his former program, all while leaning on a handful of key returners to help steady the transition.
The problem for UCLA is that the easing-in period looks short. A challenging schedule is waiting, which means Chesney will not get long to sort out chemistry, install his approach or find out how quickly the new pieces can fit together. For a program that wanted a cleaner runway into this next era, the real test appears to be arriving sooner than anyone around the Bruins would have liked. [Read more 🡒]
UCLAs Defensive Rebuild Now Hinges On Two Bruins Who Know It Best
The defensive reset at UCLA has a familiar feel for Aiden Gobaira and Darold DeNgohe, two linemen who already know Bob Chesneys system from their time with him at James Madison. Both arrived with a practical purpose beyond adding depth up front: they are helping new Bruins learn the scheme as UCLA tries to steady a defensive line that struggled through a difficult 2025 season. For a group trying to change its footing quickly, having two players who can translate the playbook from experience matters almost as much as the reps themselves.
Gobairas path back to this point has been especially notable, given how much he has had to overcome to get back on the field, while DeNgohe brings another layer of continuity to the room after reuniting with Chesney in Westwood. The Bruins are counting on that shared background to speed up the rebuild, but the bigger question is how quickly that familiarity turns into production once the season pressure starts to build. [Read more 🡒]
Nico Iamaleava Faces A Big UCLA Test In Year Two
Nico Iamaleava is heading into his second season at UCLA with the kind of attention that comes with being the Bruins quarterback, but his focus has stayed on the details that shape a season long before kickoff. He said he wants to be more consistent in both preparation and play, and he sounded like a player who is settling into an offense that now feels more familiar as fall camp unfolds.
Iamaleava also pointed to head coach Bob Chesneys steady approach as part of what has helped him grow. For UCLA, the stakes are simple enough: if Iamaleava keeps progressing through camp and carries that comfort into the fall, the Bruins give themselves a better chance to make this season count. [Read more 🡒]