Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes took a brutal hit Saturday at Autzen Stadium, and the Ducks now have no room left to breathe.
No. 21 UCLA walked out with a 17-15 upset, and Oregon’s last-gasp chance to force overtime came up empty after the Ducks twice failed on a two-point conversion.
Brock Thomas was stuffed on the first try, then Oregon got another shot after a face-mask penalty. Jordon Davison couldn’t get in on the second attempt, and the final desperation drive died with it.
That’s the kind of loss that changes the whole conversation.
Oregon is now 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten, and after reaching the two-loss mark, the Ducks are suddenly staring at a postseason picture with almost no margin for error. The program that opened the AP Preseason Poll at No. 2 under Dan Lanning is now in real danger of missing the College Football Playoff altogether, which would have sounded absurd not long ago given what Oregon has done in the Big Ten over the last two seasons.
The Ducks were also outgained by their own mistakes. The matchup started with the buzz of five-star quarterbacks Dylan Raiola and Nico Iamaleava, but it ended with backup quarterbacks Brock Thomas and Ty Dieffenbach trying to keep things together.
Raiola, filling in for Dante Moore after Moore’s concussion in the 41-27 win over USC on Sept. 28, went 6 of 19 for 43 yards with two interceptions. Thomas finished 11 of 15 for 156 yards and a touchdown while trying to spark Oregon’s rally.
Even with that comeback push, the numbers were ugly for the Ducks. They ran it 27 times for just 73 yards, a 2.7-yard average, and they turned it over seven times. The loss could have been even worse.
That only deepens the damage from Oregon’s 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State in Week 2, when the Ducks gave up 554 total yards. Put those two results together, and it gets hard to make a convincing playoff case.
The Moore injury is the one possible wrinkle Oregon can point to if the committee conversation ever comes back around. The question is simple enough: would the Ducks have won with Moore? The committee does weigh injuries in those discussions, but how much that helps is another matter.
There’s also the bigger issue of who’s ahead of Oregon now. UCLA and No. 20 Iowa are among the Big Ten teams in the mix in front of the Ducks in the CFP race, and Oregon’s path gets narrow in a hurry.
The schedule doesn’t offer much relief, either. Outside of No.
5 Ohio State on Nov. 7, Oregon may not see another ranked opponent, and that trip will likely decide everything one way or another.
If the Ducks take a third loss, they’re done.
Oregon’s remaining games are Nebraska on Oct. 17, at Illinois on Oct. 24, Northwestern on Oct. 31, at No.
5 Ohio State on Nov. 7, Michigan on Nov. 14, at Michigan State on Nov. 20 and Washington on Nov.
In Other News...
UCLA Survived Oregon With A Twist Fans Didn't See Coming
UCLAs 17-15 win at Oregon carried plenty of significance even before the final whistle. It was the Bruins first victory over the Ducks since 2017 and their first at Autzen Stadium since 2004, a road breakthrough that fit neatly with the early surge under Bob Chesney and another steady showing from senior running back Wayne Knight, who handled a career-high 22 carries and scored two touchdowns.
The game also brought an uneasy turn for UCLAs offense when Nico Iamaleava went down and had to be replaced by Ty Dieffenbach, who finished the day at quarterback. For a team that has already built real momentum, the win came with a reminder that the Bruins may have to keep adjusting as they try to turn this strong start into something bigger. [Read more 🡒]
UCLA's Quarterback Situation Just Overshadowed A Gritty Win At Oregon
The Bruins left Oregon with a hard-fought 17-15 win, the kind that can say a lot about a team even when the conversation afterward keeps circling back to the same place. UCLA leaned on a physical run game and a defense that held up in a tight road battle, with Wayne Knight turning in a career day on the ground with 22 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns.
Still, the most pressing storyline came at quarterback, where Nico Iamaleava's afternoon never really settled into rhythm before the game took another turn. Ty Dieffenbach stepped in after Iamaleava's first-half struggles, and his relief appearance helped keep UCLA moving just enough to survive, leaving the Bruins with a win and an obvious question hanging over the rest of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Win Now Comes With A Big Ten Question For Bear Alexander
A late-game sequence from UCLAs loss to Oregon has now spilled into the Big Tens disciplinary lane, after a viral video appeared to show Ducks defensive tackle Bear Alexander striking Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava during a tackle. Iamaleava exited with a lower-body injury, and what was already a physical night in Eugene has become a fresh talking point for a conference office that has not yet weighed in on the play.
The situation lands at a tricky moment for Oregon, especially after coach Dan Lanning recently condemned similar conduct in another incident. Whether the conference treats Alexanders case as something more than hard postseason-level football remains to be seen, but the fact that it is even under potential review adds an uncomfortable layer to a win the Ducks would rather keep centered on the scoreboard. [Read more 🡒]