Greg McElroy is sticking with Oregon in Saturday’s matchup with unbeaten No. 21 UCLA, even with Dante Moore’s status still up in the air.
On his Always College Football podcast, the ESPN analyst went with the Ducks by a 31-21 margin at Autzen Stadium, leaning on what he sees as Oregon’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and dictate the game if the Bruins are forced away from their preferred script.
“Dan Lanning is 39-1 in his career when Oregon gets more red-zone trips than the opponent,” McElroy said.
Moore missed time after suffering a concussion in Oregon’s 41-27 win at USC on Sept. 26, though he was back at practice Monday in a helmet and shoulder pads. Lanning still hasn’t cleared the former UCLA quarterback, and the Big Ten’s first injury report for the game is scheduled for Wednesday night.
If Moore can’t go, Dylan Raiola would get the nod again after stepping in at the Coliseum. He completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns in relief, but McElroy pointed to what he called a troubling track record against ranked opponents.
“If you look back at his time at Nebraska, he was 0-5 against ranked football teams,” McElroy said. “Well, UCLA is ranked.”
A Raiola start would also come one week before Oregon meets Nebraska.
UCLA arrives at 4-0 and 2-0 in the Big Ten after ripping Maryland 54-3 on Sept. 26. Chesney became the first UCLA coach since Red Sanders in 1949 to start his tenure 4-0.
The Bruins have been powered by the run game, and Wayne Knight has been the engine. The back, who followed Chesney from James Madison, has 445 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 carries against FBS opponents. UCLA is averaging 7 yards per carry, the top mark in the country.
Still, McElroy believes Oregon has the bodies to make that strength harder to sustain. The Ducks have given up only nine runs of 10 or more yards, and he expects them to commit extra attention to the ground game.
“Oregon will completely sell out against the run,” McElroy said.
That would put the spotlight on Nico Iamaleava and UCLA’s passing attack, which McElroy sees as the more vulnerable part of the offense. Iamaleava has thrown four touchdown passes, a total McElroy said ranks 118th nationally, and Chesney’s teams have not thrived when the game script demands more throws.
“Bob Chesney is 20-1 as an FBS head coach when his team runs fewer than 30 pass plays,” McElroy said. “He is 1-3 when they have to throw it 40 or more times.”
“So once the Bruins are forced to throw the ball, that’s when the matchup starts to tilt pretty hard in the direction of the Ducks,” McElroy added.
Turnovers could be UCLA’s cleanest path to an upset. The Bruins are plus-8 in turnover margin, tied for third nationally, while Oregon has turned it over only twice all season. But UCLA also comes in averaging 10 penalties per game, a number McElroy said ranks 137th out of 138 teams, and that kind of sloppiness gets tougher to survive in Autzen.
The recent series history also points Oregon’s way. The Ducks have won five straight against UCLA, and McElroy noted the Bruins’ last victory in Eugene came in 2004, when Lanning was a freshman linebacker at William Jewell.
McElroy was wrong on Oregon once already this season, taking USC 34-31 in Week 4 before the Ducks pulled away for a 14-point win at the Coliseum. Oregon and UCLA kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
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