Week 6 has a few dogs worth barking at, and Nebraska is the one that jumps off the page. The Cornhuskers have quietly put together a strong statistical profile, sitting 11th in college football in adjusted EPA per play and fourth in net success rate through five weeks.
The record may not have the market fully sold yet, mostly because of the schedule they’ve faced, but Nebraska has still cleared 31 points in every game so far. Now it gets Indiana, a team that has already flashed some warning signs, including barely escaping Northwestern two weeks ago.
That’s enough to make Nebraska a live outright upset pick against the defending national champions.
The same logic points to Oklahoma as another team worth a swing. Texas and Oklahoma both bring elite defensive numbers into the matchup, which is why this one could turn into a slog.
In a low-scoring game, the margin gets thin fast, and all it takes is a couple turnovers, a few penalties, or one bad bounce to flip everything. Oklahoma has been especially stingy, leading the nation in opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate, and that gives the Sooners a real shot to wreck what Arch Manning has shown so far this season.
If the game stays tight and ugly, Oklahoma can absolutely be live for the upset.
Oregon is the third underdog angle, and this one comes down to a mismatch the Ducks may not be built to handle. UCLA checks in 14th in net adjusted EPA per play according to GameOnPaper.com, while Oregon is 17th, so the gap between the two teams is not as wide as the brand names might suggest.
The bigger problem for Oregon is what it’s been doing against the run. The Ducks rank 101st in opponent rush EPA and 81st in opponent rush success rate, which is a dangerous place to be when UCLA is averaging 7.0 yards per carry and ranks first in rush EPA and second in rush success rate.
That sets up UCLA as a dangerous outright play too.
In Other News...
UCLA Enters Oregon Test Healthier Than Expected With One Key Uncertainty
UCLA heads into Week 6 with a noticeably cleaner injury picture than it has carried into some of its recent matchups, a welcome development as the Bruins prepare for a difficult trip to Oregon. The initial report suggests the roster is in better shape overall, and that matters in a game where availability can tilt the margin quickly.
Oregons quarterback situation also adds another layer to the matchup, with Dante Moore ruled out and backup Dylan Raiola set to take over. For UCLA, the biggest uncertainty on the report is Tao Johnson, who is listed as questionable after missing three games, while Aidan Mizell looks ready to go, giving the Bruins at least a little more clarity as they sort through the final details before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Faces A Dangerous Home Test At The Worst Time
UCLA heads into its upcoming trip to Eugene with a chance to keep an undefeated season rolling and to chase a milestone that has eluded the program for two decades. The Bruins have not won there since 2004, and this meeting arrives with their ground game carrying much of the load against an Oregon defense that has generally done a good job keeping opponents from breaking through on the run.
Oregons quarterback situation adds another layer to a matchup that already felt high-stakes. Dante Moore will not play because of a concussion, so Dylan Raiola is set to start in his place, leaving the Ducks to adjust on short notice against a UCLA team that looks built to press that exact weakness. For the Bruins, it is the kind of road test that can tell them plenty about where this season is headed. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Faces A Huge UCLA Test With Its QB Situation Still Unclear
Oregons trip to face UCLA comes with more than the usual Pac-12 intrigue, and the quarterback situation only adds another layer to a matchup that already looks difficult to sort out. ESPN analyst Greg McElroy leaned toward the Ducks, pointing to Dan Lannings defense as a reason for confidence, especially the way Oregon has handled the run and finished drives in the red zone.
From UCLAs side, there is still plenty to like in the ground game and in a turnover battle that has kept the Bruins competitive. But McElroy also flagged the same issues that have followed them at times this season, namely the passing game and penalties, while the Oregon quarterback picture remains cloudy after Dante Moores concussion and the questions surrounding Dylan Raiola against higher-level competition. [Read more 🡒]