Michigan State Has A Chance To Ruin A Big Ten Surprise Season

UCLA faces a significant test as they aim to uphold their unbeaten streak against a struggling Michigan State, spotlighting the contrasting journeys of two former James Madison coaches.

No. 9 UCLA brings the season’s last undefeated record in the Big Ten and SEC into Saturday’s meeting with Michigan State, but the Bruins are doing it with a very different look than they had a week ago. After Nico Iamaleava went down with a season-ending knee injury in the Week 6 win over Oregon, UCLA has turned to Ty Dieffenbach, and the Bruins will try to keep their surprising run rolling at the Rose Bowl.

UCLA enters at 6-0 overall and 4-0 in Big Ten play under first-year coach Bob Chesney, who has turned the Bruins into one of the most unexpected success stories in the sport. The start has put Chesney in rare company: he is only the second head coach in FBS history to begin his tenure 6-0 with a team coming off a nine-loss season. The other was Curt Cignetti with Indiana in 2024.

That parallel is part of what makes UCLA’s start stand out, especially since both Chesney and Cignetti came from James Madison and quickly lifted struggling Big Ten teams. Michigan State, meanwhile, is still searching for traction under Pat Fitzgerald. The Spartans are 2-5 overall and 0-4 in the conference, and their last two losses have come by a combined four points against Illinois and Northwestern.

The road ahead for Michigan State does not get any easier. The Spartans are trying to avoid opening Big Ten play 0-5 in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history, and this trip west marks their first road game against UCLA since 1974.

For UCLA, the quarterback situation is now the biggest storyline. Dieffenbach, the Cal Poly transfer, handled the job well in last week’s 17-7 win over Wisconsin.

At 6-foot-6, he brings a similar look to Iamaleava, with the ability to see over the defense and use long strides as a runner. His 264 passing yards against the Badgers were a season-high for UCLA’s passing game.

The Bruins’ ground game also needs to find its rhythm again. UCLA opened the year by rushing for more than 200 yards in each of its first four games, but that production has dipped in the last two weeks.

The Bruins managed 140 rushing yards against Oregon and then just 120 against Wisconsin, their lowest total of the season. Wayne Knight was held to 23 yards on 13 carries by the Badgers, and if UCLA is going to maximize what it has shown this season, getting Knight going again will matter even more with the backup quarterback in charge.

There is also more than just the game itself hanging over this one. UCLA enters with a 28.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to the CBS Sports CFP Forecaster.

That number climbs to 35.2% with a win and falls to 11.4% with a loss. Because of the Bruins’ light schedule strength, a 10-2 finish would still leave them in serious danger of missing the 12-team field, and a 5-1 or 6-0 close would likely be needed to stay in the mix.

Michigan State does have one path to make this interesting: the Spartans have limited opposing rushing attacks well enough that only one team has averaged more than four yards per carry against them this season. That gives them a chance to slow UCLA’s run game, which has already been trending the wrong way. Still, it is difficult to see Michigan State scoring enough to pull the outright upset against UCLA’s defense.

The more likely outcome is a tight, low-scoring game that stays within reach of the underdog. The spread is large, and UCLA is now playing without Iamaleava, so the safer play is the points with Michigan State. Pick: Michigan State +14

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