Michigan Surging, Arizona Slipping: The Race for No. 1 Is Heating Up
For more than two months, Arizona has been the team to beat. The Wildcats have sat atop the AP Top 25, and for the last four weeks, they’ve held that No. 1 spot unanimously. But college basketball doesn’t stay still for long - and with Selection Sunday less than a month away, the conversation is shifting fast.
The catalyst? Michigan.
Since dropping a game to Wisconsin last month - their only loss of the season - the Wolverines have ripped off 10 straight wins. Saturday’s 86-56 dismantling of UCLA wasn’t just a win, it was a statement.
Michigan is now 18-1 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, the most such wins in Division I. That’s not just a strong résumé - that’s a bracket-busting portfolio.
And it’s not just the volume of wins - it’s how they’re doing it. Twelve of Michigan’s 14 Big Ten victories have come by double digits, and six of those were blowouts by 20 or more. They’re not just surviving the grind of conference play; they’re dominating it.
Still, even elite teams get tested. Earlier this week, Michigan found itself in a 16-point hole against Northwestern.
They clawed back and ended up winning by 12 - a wild swing that showed both their vulnerability and their resolve. Go back a bit further, and you’ll find Penn State nearly pulling off a stunner.
The Nittany Lions, 24.5-point underdogs, had a shot at the buzzer to win it. That miss preserved Michigan’s narrowest win of the season and served as a reminder that in college hoops, no lead - or ranking - is safe.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s grip on the top spot is starting to loosen. The Wildcats took their first loss of the season earlier this week against Kansas, and now, the door is wide open for Michigan to make a move.
In fact, in the first AP poll of the new year, Arizona barely edged out Michigan for No. 1 - just a single point separating the two. That was nearly the first tie at No. 1 since 1981.
With Arizona facing No. 16 Texas Tech later today, and Michigan continuing to roll, we could be on the verge of a shakeup at the top.
What Michigan Needs to Lock Down the No. 1 Overall Seed
If the season ended today, Michigan would be the projected No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. But there’s still work to be done - and the road ahead isn’t exactly smooth.
Michigan’s remaining regular-season schedule is a gauntlet. Five of their final six games are against Quad 1 opponents, and three of those are ranked teams.
The biggest one? A looming matchup with No.
8 Illinois later this month - a game that could decide the Big Ten regular-season title.
Right now, Michigan holds a 2.5-game lead over Illinois in the conference standings. Purdue and Nebraska are also in the mix, both sitting three games back. Michigan will face Purdue on Tuesday - another opportunity to create separation and reinforce their case for the top seed.
But the biggest test may come outside the Big Ten.
Circle the Date: Michigan vs. Duke Next Weekend
Next weekend, Michigan will face Duke in Washington, D.C., in what might be the most anticipated regular-season game of the year. Duke, despite a recent loss to rival North Carolina, is still projected as a No. 1 seed. This matchup has all the makings of a Final Four preview - and it could carry major weight on Selection Sunday.
There’s no shortage of storylines. Michigan’s frontcourt, anchored by star big man Aday Mara, will have its hands full with Duke’s Cameron Boozer - the frontrunner for National Player of the Year.
The battle in the paint could be a game-changer. But don’t overlook the backcourt.
Both teams have guards capable of taking over, and with the stakes this high, someone’s going to have to rise to the moment.
A win for either team could be the difference between a No. 1 seed and a 2-seed, or even between a Midwest and a West bracket. This is the kind of game that doesn’t just decide rankings - it shapes tournament paths.
Arizona’s Path Isn’t Getting Easier
If Michigan’s road is tough, Arizona’s might be even tougher. The Wildcats are staring down a brutal five-game stretch to close out the regular season, all against Top 25 opponents: Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State. That’s a minefield, and it starts today with a major Big 12 showdown against Texas Tech.
The marquee matchup? Next weekend’s clash with No.
3 Houston. It’s the only scheduled meeting between the two Big 12 heavyweights, and it could very well decide the regular-season conference title.
Arizona still has 15 wins against Quad 1/2 opponents - second only to Michigan - but that margin could shrink depending on what happens in the coming weeks.
The Bottom Line
Michigan is peaking at the right time. They’ve got the wins, the dominance, and the momentum.
Arizona still has the pedigree and a chance to prove itself against the best of the Big 12. But with the Wildcats taking their first loss and the Wolverines surging, the race for the No. 1 overall seed - and the top spot in the AP poll - is officially on.
And with Duke vs. Michigan looming, we’re about to find out just how real this Wolverines team is.