Why the Sun Belt Championship Could Shake Up the CFP Picture - James Madison vs. Troy Preview
Don’t sleep on Friday night’s Sun Belt Championship Game. While it might not carry the same national spotlight as the SEC or Big Ten title bouts, James Madison vs.
Troy has serious implications - not just for a conference crown, but potentially for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Yes, you read that right.
No. 25 James Madison hosts Troy at Showker Field at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, Virginia, and the stakes go well beyond bragging rights. For the Dukes, a win could crack open the door to the 12-team CFP - a massive opportunity for a Group of Six program that’s been knocking louder and louder with each passing week.
A CFP Long Shot? Maybe. But the Path Is There.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t a win-and-you’re-in scenario for James Madison. Their playoff fate hinges on what happens elsewhere, particularly in the ACC Championship Game.
If Virginia takes down Duke, James Madison’s chances all but evaporate. But if Duke pulls off the upset?
That’s when things get interesting.
Even then, it’s no sure thing. The CFP selection committee would have to weigh a potential 12-1 Sun Belt champion against a five-loss ACC champ.
The biggest hurdle for James Madison? Strength of schedule.
The Dukes’ slate ranks outside the top 100 nationally - a stat that doesn’t do them any favors in the committee’s war room. Still, style points matter, and that’s where this game becomes more than just a championship - it becomes a statement.
Coaching Carousel: Chesney’s UCLA Move Looms
Adding another layer to Friday’s matchup is the news that James Madison head coach Bob Chesney is reportedly set to take over at UCLA. That kind of announcement can easily become a distraction, especially with a championship and playoff hopes on the line. But so far, all signs point to Chesney staying locked in on the task at hand: delivering the Dukes their first Sun Belt title since moving up to the FBS in 2022.
The Tale of Two Divisions
James Madison comes into this one at 11-1, their only blemish a road loss to Louisville. They’ve steamrolled through the Sun Belt East, and their numbers back it up.
Troy, on the other hand, finished 8-4 and claimed the Sun Belt West Division. Don’t let the record fool you - this is a program that knows how to win when it counts.
The Trojans are making their third appearance in the title game in four years, and they’ve won the last two. Experience?
Check. Championship pedigree?
Check.
Matchup to Watch: Troy’s Defense vs. JMU’s Ground Game
If Troy wants to pull off the upset, it starts with linebacker Jordan Stringer. The senior has been a tackling machine all season - 104 total stops, 11 tackles for loss, and a pair of sacks - and he’ll need to be everywhere Friday night. That’s because James Madison’s backfield is no joke.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III is a true dual-threat, with over 2,400 yards through the air, 20 touchdown passes, and another 13 scores on the ground. Add in running back Wayne Knight, who’s crossed the 1,000-yard mark with eight touchdowns, and you’ve got a backfield that can wear down even the most seasoned defenses.
Troy’s defense, meanwhile, has been vulnerable against the run - allowing 4.46 yards per carry, which ranks 89th in the FBS. That’s not the kind of stat you want heading into a matchup with one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the country. James Madison ranks 15th nationally at 5.40 yards per carry - and they’ve done it with consistency and explosiveness.
The Dukes’ Secret Weapon? Balance.
What makes James Madison so dangerous isn’t just the offense - it’s the balance. They’re one of only four FBS teams ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. They’re putting up 37.8 points per game while allowing just 16.0 - both marks good for 10th in the nation.
That kind of two-way dominance has led to some eye-popping numbers. The Dukes rank sixth nationally in point margin (+227) and have trailed their opponents for just 1 hour, 27 minutes, and 29 seconds all season. That’s not just winning - that’s controlling games from start to finish.
Prediction: James Madison Keeps the Pressure On
With the CFP door cracked open, James Madison knows what’s at stake - and they’re not likely to ease off the gas pedal. They’ve been blowing out Sun Belt opponents all season, winning conference games by an average of 27.38 points - the second-largest margin in the FBS.
Even with the coaching news swirling, the Dukes are focused, motivated, and playing some of the most complete football in the country. Troy’s experience gives them a shot, but James Madison’s firepower - and the possibility of a playoff berth - gives them every reason to make a statement.
Pick: James Madison -23.5