Week 1 didn’t just shake up scoreboards. It sent ESPN’s FPI computer into overdrive, and a handful of teams saw their outlooks swing hard after one game.
Among the biggest risers, the Bruins made the cleanest statement. Their 45-24 win over Cal was enough to catch the attention of ESPN’s metrics, which now give them a 3.1% chance to make the CFP. That number may feel a little early, but it still marked a notable jump for the Bruins.
The Bulldogs also climbed fast after a runaway performance against Louisiana-Monroe. Kamario Taylor threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the blowout, and ESPN’s updated model now has the Bulldogs at a 3.7% shot at the CFP. That comes with the odd reality that they’re still ranked 13th in their own conference.
Syracuse joined the list despite not facing an FBS opponent. The Orange crushed New Hampshire 66-3, and the computer clearly liked the 513-159 yardage margin. That was enough to push Syracuse toward the middle of the ACC pack, with a 2.0% chance to reach the CFP.
On the other side of the ledger, Rutgers took a brutal hit. A 16-point loss to a 29.5-point underdog that went 0-12 last year sent the Scarlet Knights tumbling in the FPI. They’re now 96th, last among power four teams, and ESPN gives them just a 4.1% chance to win six games.
Clemson’s slide was nearly as ugly. The Tigers dropped from 19th to 42nd after LSU handed them a 51-10 beating, and ESPN still isn’t fully done with them yet. The model gives Clemson a 2.8% chance to make the CFP, but also a 58.8% chance to get to six wins, which leaves plenty of room for a rough season.
North Carolina State also had a rough opening week, falling 34-8 at Virginia. The Wolfpack avoided the ACC basement, but the numbers still don’t look good: ESPN gives them a 40.2% chance to win six games. That’s not the kind of start Dave Doeren wanted.
In Other News...
UCLA's First Depth Chart Will Answer One Huge Question Fast
UCLAs preseason picture is finally starting to come into focus, and the first depth chart should tell a lot about how the Bruins want to line up for their opener against Cal. The expected offense has a few familiar anchors and a heavy dose of new faces, with Madden Iamaleava projected to lead the group at quarterback and captain, while transfer running back Wayne Knight is among the players expected to play a major role as the staff sorts through the rest of the rotation.
Even after all the summer movement, there are still plenty of jobs up for grabs on both sides of the ball, and the initial chart should offer the clearest look yet at which transfers have already made the strongest case and which returning players are holding off challengers. For a team still trying to settle on its identity before kickoff, the first official lineup will answer some immediate questions while leaving a few more in the air. [Read more 🡒]
UCLA's Secondary Just Got A Boost And A New Camp Question
A welcome bit of clarity arrived for UCLAs secondary as Scooter Jackson has been cleared to play this season after dealing with academic eligibility issues earlier in the year. Jackson missed part of spring practice, but he was back for fall camp and is now expected to be available when the Bruins open against Cal in Week 1, giving the defense a seasoned piece at a position group that can never have too much depth.
What makes Jackson particularly useful is the kind of versatility he brings to the back end. He has experience lining up at multiple spots in the secondary, and after a strong 2025 season with UCLA, his return gives the Bruins another player they can trust as camp sorting continues. The bigger question now is how the staff chooses to deploy him once the games start, and where he fits in a defensive picture that could still use a few answers. [Read more 🡒]
UCLA Faces Early Cal Questions As Key Roles Remain Unsettled
With Week One against Cal approaching, UCLA is still sorting out a few important pieces as the Bruins get ready to see who can step into meaningful roles right away. Bob Chesney has already pointed to Trent Hendrick as someone who should be able to help on defense and special teams, a useful early sign for a team trying to settle its depth chart before the opener.
The uncertainty extends beyond Hendrick, with Brian Rowe, Landon Ellis and James Madison transfer West among the names worth tracking as the matchup draws closer. For UCLA, the first game is as much about finding reliable contributors as it is about the result itself, and the way those roles shake out could say plenty about how ready the Bruins are for the rest of the season. [Read more 🡒]