Scottie Barnes has helped push the Toronto Raptors to a 2-1 start, but the loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves put a spotlight on a developing issue in his game that could end up affecting the offense more than anyone would like.
Barnes was blanked in that game, going 0-for-12 from the floor and finishing with 0 points in what the source described as his first real test without Kawhi Leonard on the court. The scoreless night was one thing. The way it happened was the bigger problem.
The numbers through three games still look solid on the surface. Barnes is averaging 17 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and three stocks per game.
That line does not scream trouble. But a deeper look at where his shots are coming from tells a different story, and it points to a shift in how he is attacking.
Last season, Barnes made his living around the rim. At 6-foot-8 and nearly 240 pounds, his size, speed and athleticism made him a tough cover near the basket, and that showed up in his shot profile.
A whopping 53.8 per cent of his attempts came from within ten feet, and he converted those looks at 60.1 per cent. That was his most reliable scoring area by far.
His pull up jumper was a different story. It was his second-most frequent shot type last season at 24 per cent, and he hit just 42.4 per cent of those tries. The message was pretty clear: Barnes knew where his bread was buttered and leaned into it.
This season, though, the shot mix has shifted sharply. Through three games, only 29.8 per cent of his attempts have come from within ten feet, and he has hit just 41.2 per cent of those shots. That means he is getting to the paint area 22 per cent less often, while his finish rate there has fallen by nearly 20 per cent.
At the same time, the jumper volume has climbed. Pull up jumpers now account for 40.4 per cent of his shot attempts, but he is making only 34.8 per cent of them. In other words, Barnes is taking far more of the shots he was less efficient on a year ago, without showing enough growth as a shooter to cash in on that change.
There is nothing wrong with expanding his game a little. But push it too far, and it can start working against Toronto instead of for it.
Even so, this is not a story about Barnes suddenly slipping as a player. He still made an impact on the defensive end against Minnesota, recording four steals and a block.
That matters. Even with a quiet night on offense, he can still affect the game in plenty of other ways.
Maybe some of this is influence. Barnes has been around one of the greatest mid range shooters in NBA history in Kawhi Leonard, and maybe that has rubbed off a bit. Whatever the reason, the reality is simple: Barnes is at his best when he is getting downhill and around the rim.
The Raptors are only three games into the season, but that is exactly why this is worth watching now. Coach Darko Rajakovic, at least publicly, did not sound alarmed after the Timberwolves game.
“I don’t think they did anything, to be honest with you, that they got him off the game,” Rajakovic told reporters after the game. “He just missed shots.”
That is the current read from the bench, and it may be the right one. A three-game sample is too small to draw a hard conclusion.
But Barnes’ shot distribution is already different enough to merit attention. If it sticks, it could have a real effect on what Toronto’s offense becomes later in the season, especially when the games start to matter most.
In Other News...
Raptors-Magic Suddenly Looks Very Different After New Injury News
What had looked like a straightforward Raptors-Magic matchup has quickly taken on a very different feel after the latest injury updates. Toronto will be without Kawhi Leonard for several weeks because of right knee inflammation, leaving a significant hole in the lineup and altering the way the team will have to approach the stretch ahead.
Orlando is dealing with its own setbacks, with Paolo Banchero expected out for 4-6 weeks because of a right high ankle sprain and Jalen Suggs sidelined for two games with a right knee bone bruise. Anthony Black, who had been listed as questionable, has been cleared to play, giving the Magic at least one more available body as both teams adjust to a suddenly thinner game plan. [Read more 🡒]
Magic Face An Early Test As Injuries Raise The Stakes
The Raptors head into their matchup with Orlando still sorting through the offensive issues that showed up in the loss to Minnesota, where Scottie Barnes had a particularly rough night. Toronto needs more from its young centerpiece, especially in terms of aggressiveness and playmaking, and this stretch against the Magic offers a chance to reset before the seasons early frustrations settle in.
Orlando comes in dealing with its own injury problems, with Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs both sidelined, which changes the look of the game even if the challenge remains real. For Toronto, that only adds to the importance of handling business against a depleted opponent, because the Raptors can use a clean offensive performance just as much as they need a result. [Read more 🡒]
Scottie Barnes Is Raising A Real Concern For The Raptors Offense
Scottie Barnes early-season shot profile has become a notable wrinkle for the Raptors, and not necessarily the kind that encourages confidence. Instead of living at the rim the way he has in past seasons, Barnes has been leaning more heavily into mid-range looks, a shift that has altered the balance of Torontos offense and taken some of the pressure off defenders to protect the paint.
Darko Rajakovic has said opposing coverages have played a role in that change, but the larger concern is whether Barnes can get back to being a consistent paint threat while still operating as a playmaker. He has already shown flashes in the opening stretch, then followed that with a rough shooting night against the Minnesota Timberwolves, which only adds to the sense that Toronto is still trying to figure out how best to use its most important young piece. [Read more 🡒]