Scottie Barnes is already the face of the Raptors, but Toronto’s bigger question is still hanging out there: can he be the guy on a championship team, or does he fit better as the elite piece beside one?
Barnes has given the Raptors plenty to believe in. The 2021-22 Rookie of the Year has spent five seasons with the team and keeps climbing toward the league’s top tier.
Last season, his scoring slipped from 19.3 points per game to 18.1, but his defensive impact sharpened even more. That was enough to place him fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, behind Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Detroit Pistons wing Ausar Thompson, Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren and San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama.
That defensive leap is a big reason Barnes can still profile as the best player on a title contender. The catch is his jumper, especially from 3-point range, still has to come forward.
Toronto knows Barnes is central to whatever comes next. His future with the franchise is locked in, and the team’s championship case depends on him continuing to develop into one of the NBA’s best players. But the Raptors also understand he cannot carry everything alone.
That’s part of why Toronto tried to trade for Kawhi Leonard this offseason. Bringing in the former Finals MVP would not automatically mean Barnes takes a back seat, though. Leonard is 35 and may already be past his peak, which leaves plenty of room for Barnes to remain the better player.
Still, the move would say something about how the Raptors may be thinking. It would suggest Barnes could be viewed as the ideal No. 2 on a true contender, similar to how Toronto once leaned on Kyle Lowry through much of the 2010s before Leonard arrived from the San Antonio Spurs and helped deliver the success the team had been chasing.
Barnes’ contract also tells the story. He is set to earn $224.5 million over the next five seasons on his max extension, the kind of money that usually belongs to a franchise’s top option. Nobody on the roster will make more, which means Toronto has to be careful about how it allocates the rest of its payroll.
So the Raptors are left with a pretty clear reality: they hope Barnes becomes their best player because that would let them avoid paying someone else to fill that role, but they’d be willing to adjust if the right opportunity comes along. Either way, Barnes’ deal ties up roughly a quarter of the team’s payroll, and that limits flexibility.
The good news for Toronto is that there’s still time. Barnes is only 25 and still growing into his game. His career average of 5.2 assists per game shows the point guard tendencies that can make him the most important player on the floor possession by possession.
He looks like a “1A” player. He just hasn’t cleared the “1B” label yet.
For that to change, the Raptors need playoff success with Barnes running the show as the primary playmaker. That’s the kind of proof that would make the belief in him harder to argue with.
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