Scottie Barnes may have the kind of defensive profile that eventually puts him in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, but there’s one giant reason the award is so hard to reach: Victor Wembanyama.
ESPN’s future power rankings for the Raptors’ 2027-29 stretch included a bold call that Barnes will win a DPOY trophy. It’s not a wild thought on talent alone.
Barnes is one of the league’s most versatile defenders, the kind of player who can handle every position, pile up steals and blocks, make winning plays late, and serve as the backbone of a defense that already ranks among the NBA’s best. He earned his first All-Defensive Second Team selection this season, and the path ahead looks like one that could lead to First Team honors and eventually stronger DPOY buzz.
The problem is that Wembanyama exists.
The Spurs star entered the league as one of the most hyped prospects ever and has already delivered on that billing, winning the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year award and guiding San Antonio to the finals in just his third season. With his 8-foot wingspan and nightly rim protection, he’s the kind of force who can block anyone’s path to hardware. He has averaged more than three blocks and one steal per game in each of his first three seasons, which is exactly the sort of production that keeps him at the front of the race year after year.
Still, there is one possible opening. Availability has been the one soft spot so far.
Wembanyama has yet to play more than 71 games in a season, and last year he appeared in just 65 games, counting the NBA Cup Final. If that pattern continues, Barnes could find the door cracked open.
“Wembanyama will be the award’s heavy favorite for the next decade, but the Spurs star has averaged just 60 games per season during his three-year career,” ESPN’s Ben Golliver wrote. “With San Antonio needing to pace itself for deep playoff runs and the NBA’s 65-game rule potentially impacting Wembanyama’s eligibility, Barnes should get the opportunity for some individual recognition.”
Toronto’s offseason move for Kawhi Leonard could also help Barnes build the kind of case that wins awards. Leonard is no longer the same defender he once was in Toronto, but he is still a clear upgrade from Brandon Ingram on that side of the floor. Add in the continued development of Ja’Kobe Walter and Collin Murray-Boyles, and the Raptors could push beyond being the league’s fifth-best defense.
That matters. Four of the last five Defensive Player of the Year winners - Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Marcus Smart - came from teams that finished in the top three in defensive rating.
Evan Mobley broke that mold in 2024-25, when the Cleveland Cavaliers finished eighth in defensive rating. If Toronto climbs higher, Barnes’s case gets stronger with it.
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