The best way to attack NBA win totals is usually to look for the places where the market has gone a little too cold. For the 2026-27 season, that’s exactly where the Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors stand out.
Both teams are sitting at numbers that feel light compared with what the projection model sees. Houston is lined at 46.5 wins, while Toronto is at 45.5, and in both cases the case for the over is built on more than just blind optimism.
Houston’s number is the more glaring one. The Rockets won 52 games last season even though Steven Adams only played 32 games and Fred VanVleet played none.
The model expects them to be better this year, not worse, and pegs them at 55 wins. Vegas, meanwhile, has them dropping all the way to 46.5.
That’s a steep fade for a team that has already shown it can win 52 games in back-to-back seasons. Ime Udoka leaned hard on his core last year, with Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. all finishing top five in minutes played. The model expects those workloads to come down, but Houston has added enough to absorb that.
Adams, VanVleet, Marcus Smart, and Bogdan Bogdanovic give the Rockets real depth. Adams is a starting-caliber center coming off the bench.
VanVleet brings steady production and can cover the same kind of output Reed Sheppard gave them last season. Smart, in particular, looks like a sneaky strong addition after reviving his career with the Lakers and showing he can still play at a high level.
The bigger picture is simple: Houston already has a style that travels well. The defense is physical, the offensive rebounding is relentless, and the additions only strengthen both areas.
Smart adds edge on the perimeter. Adams makes the double-big look with Alperen Sengun even more punishing on the glass.
VanVleet also gives them late-game shot-making, which matters because last year they leaned too heavily on Durant when possessions got tight.
Durant remains the most important piece, but the projection still has Houston comfortably clearing the over even if he only plays half the season. This is the clearest over on the board.
Toronto is trickier, but the number still looks too low. The Raptors are set at 45.5 wins, and the uncertainty around the Kawhi Leonard situation is the obvious reason for caution. The trade still has not gone through, and the penalties tied to his salary circumvention with the Clippers could be severe.
Even with that risk hanging over the team, the model still likes the over. Toronto won 46 games last season, so simply holding steady gets them there. That becomes more difficult in a tougher Eastern Conference, but it still looks reachable.
If Leonard plays a reasonable 63 games, the model has Toronto flying past the number at 54.5 wins. He was a top-five player in the league last year by impact metrics and was durable. If the trade gets rescinded and Ingram ends up back in Toronto, the projection still has the Raptors at 46.5 wins, which would barely cash the over.
Scottie Barnes is the engine in the Leonard-free version of this team. He has clear All-Star impact and has been fairly healthy throughout his career.
The supporting cast is solid across the board, with RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, and either Ingram or Leonard giving Toronto a strong starting group. Behind them, Collin Murray-Boyles emerged as a quality backup big man as a rookie, and Jamal Shead brought energy off the bench.
That kind of depth tends to add up over 82 games. The Raptors may not have the same star power as some of the league’s other contenders, but they have enough quality to rack up regular-season wins.
Darko Rajakovic’s track record also matters here. He has improved Toronto’s defense every year of his career, and the Raptors climbed to No. 5 on that end last season. With Leonard and promising rookie Allen Graves in place of weaker defenders in Ingram and Sandro Mamukelashvili, that side of the floor should stay strong.
The Leonard investigation is still unresolved, and a suspension for part of the season is possible. But even half a season of Leonard would still leave Toronto well ahead of this number. The over at 45.5 wins remains the play.
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