Jamal Shead’s Learning Curve: A Midseason Dip or a Sign of Defensive Adjustments?
Jamal Shead wasn’t brought in to be the star of the show in Toronto. Head coach Darko Rajaković didn’t hand him the keys to the offense or ask him to light up the scoreboard. What he did ask for was poise, ball security, and relentless defense - and for a good chunk of the season, Shead delivered exactly that.
But over the last 10 games, the rookie guard has hit a bit of a wall. His minutes haven’t vanished, but his impact has definitely dulled. Toronto has looked sharper at times with him off the floor, and that raises a fair, basketball-savvy question: Are NBA defenses starting to figure Shead out, or is this just part of the natural learning curve for a young point guard still finding his footing?
Early-Season Steady Hand
Let’s rewind. Through his first 45 games, Shead wasn’t flashy - but he was effective.
He averaged 7.2 points, 5.6 assists, and just 1.4 turnovers per game. His shooting splits - 36.5% from the field and 32.7% from deep - weren’t eye-popping, but his advanced numbers told a deeper story.
He led all Raptors rotation players in net rating at +5.0 during that stretch. That’s no small feat for a rookie.
His assist-to-turnover ratio? A stellar 4.08.
That’s the kind of efficiency coaches dream about from a backup point guard running the second unit. He kept the offense humming without forcing the issue, always looking to make the right read rather than the highlight pass.
Defensively, Shead brought a level of physicality and IQ that doesn’t always show up in the box score. He’s among the league leaders in offensive fouls drawn - a stat that speaks to his willingness to take hits and his understanding of positioning.
He fights through screens, pressures ball handlers, and plays with a chip on his shoulder. That edge helped establish his value early.
The Recent Slide
But over the last 10 games, the numbers have taken a dip. Shead is averaging 5.2 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.6 turnovers.
His shooting has dipped slightly to 35.2% from the field and 28.6% from three. His assist-to-turnover ratio has dropped to 2.75, and his net rating has flipped to -2.5.
That kind of regression doesn’t always mean something is fundamentally broken. But for a player whose value is built on control, efficiency, and decision-making, even a slight slip can have a ripple effect. The turnovers are creeping up, the shots aren’t falling, and the same calm command he showed earlier in the year hasn’t been as consistent.
Are Defenses Catching Up?
There’s another layer here - one that speaks to how quickly the NBA adapts. Shead isn’t the biggest or most explosive guard.
He’s not yet a knockdown shooter. And it looks like defenses are starting to test those limitations.
Opponents are going under screens more often, daring him to beat them with the jumper. That’s a classic adjustment against guards who aren’t yet confident pull-up threats. When defenders don’t have to fight over the top, they can stay home on shooters and clog the passing lanes - taking away the very windows Shead thrived on earlier in the season.
Earlier this year, when help defenders overcommitted, Shead made them pay with pinpoint passes. Now, teams are forcing him to be the scorer. And so far, he hasn’t punished them enough to make them change that approach.
This isn’t unusual. It’s a rite of passage for young guards.
Once the league has film on you, the defensive schemes get sharper. The question becomes: how quickly can you adjust?
What Comes Next
Shead doesn’t need to become a 20-point-per-game guy. That’s not his lane.
But he does need to keep defenders honest. That means hitting open pull-ups when they go under screens.
That means finishing better at the rim when the lane opens up. And that means staying aggressive without forcing the issue.
If he can start to make defenses pay for going under, those passing lanes will open back up. The floor will stretch, and his playmaking will once again become a weapon.
A 10-game slump doesn’t erase a strong first half of the season. It just signals the next step in the development process.
Shead has already shown he can read the game at a high level. Now it’s about adjusting to the adjustments - a challenge every young point guard faces.
If he figures that out, this rough patch will look less like a red flag and more like a necessary step toward becoming a long-term piece in Toronto’s backcourt.