The Toronto Raptors are coming off a 46-36 season, good enough for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, but the market still isn’t buying a major jump forward.
Their regular-season win total is set at 46.5, a number that puts them behind the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons in the East projections. The Miami Heat are also sitting at 46.5, which leaves Toronto right on the edge of the play-in picture depending on whether it lands over or under that line.
That’s not far off from the broader public’s view of this team. Last season, Toronto’s win total projection was 39.5, and the Raptors cleared it with room to spare.
Now the question is whether they can do it again and push into 50-win territory.
Health is going to matter, as it always does, but especially for a team with big hopes attached to its top names. Toronto managed to be one of the league’s healthier teams last season even with starters like Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett missing significant stretches. According to Sportrac, the Raptors ranked among the top five healthiest teams in the NBA, with a total cash hit from injured players of $23.9 million across 16 players.
The biggest swing factor is Kawhi Leonard. He’s 35 and coming off one of the healthiest and most productive seasons of his career, having played 65 games last year. The next issue is how Toronto handles his workload during the season versus the postseason.
That old load-management blueprint still hangs over everything. During the championship run in 2018-19, Leonard played 60 games and had enough left to keep pushing through nagging injuries when the playoffs arrived.
There’s also reason for confidence in the way the Raptors’ medical staff has handled top players. They helped Brandon Ingram get back to All-Star form last season, and he played 77 games before suffering a heel injury in the first round of the playoffs.
It was his healthiest season since his rookie year in 2016-17. That track record gives more weight to the idea that the Kawhi Leonard-Alex McKechnie partnership could pay off again.
The East, though, looks crowded in the same old way. Last season, only three games separated the fifth seed from the 10th seed, and Toronto ended up on top of that cluster.
A similar logjam could show up again. A 50-win season last year would probably have locked the Raptors into the fifth seed, but this season that same total might be enough for home court in the playoffs if teams like the Detroit Pistons or Boston Celtics slip a bit.
Even with all that competition, the 46-win range still feels within reach for Toronto. With Leonard in the mix, it’s hard to see the Raptors not gaining at least four wins over last season.
In Other News...
Ex-Raptors Coach Just Poured Cold Water On Toronto Hype
The Raptors have generated plenty of optimism heading into the future, but Sam Mitchell is not buying into a sudden leap just yet. The former Toronto coach, speaking with SiriusXM NBA Radio host Brian Geltzeiler, said he sees the club as more of an eighth-place team in the East for the 2026-27 season, pointing to how often Toronto struggled against winning opponents last year as a reason for his caution.
Mitchell also raised the familiar question of availability when it comes to Kawhi Leonard, wondering whether Leonard would be on the floor often enough to shift Torontos trajectory in a meaningful way. It is the same kind of skepticism Mitchell voiced when the Raptors first landed Leonard before the 2018-19 season, which gives his current take a little extra weight, even if it is the kind of projection that will not sit well with a fan base hoping for a bigger breakthrough. [Read more 🡒]
Raptors Fans Already Have A Jersey Debate They Never Wanted
The Raptors are already set to give fans something new to argue about next season, with a Sun Life Financial logo patch slated to appear on two of the teams Swingman Statement jerseys for 2026-27. The patch will feature a large yellow circle with Sun Life printed underneath, tying directly into the companys recent global rebrand and making the sponsor mark a far more noticeable part of the jersey design.
It will show up on jerseys sold at specific locations and will also stay on Torontos uniforms as part of the sponsorship agreement, which means this is not just a retail touch but a visible part of the on-court look. For a fan base that pays close attention to every detail of the uniform, it adds another layer to the ongoing conversation around how much branding belongs on a jersey in the first place. [Read more 🡒]
Raptors Just Made Jamal Shead A Much Bigger Long Term Bet
Jamal Sheads rise from defensive specialist to a more central piece of the Raptors future took a clear step forward with a three-year, $24 million extension. Toronto is buying into the parts of Sheads game that already stand out, especially his pressure defense and the kind of passing that helps a lineup stay organized and connected, even when the offense is still finding its way.
The bet now is whether Shead can grow beyond what he already is and become a more dependable scoring threat. His defensive rsum is already decorated, with consecutive AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors and the 2024 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award, but the Raptors long-term return will likely hinge on how much he can add as a shooter and creator. [Read more 🡒]