The Toronto Raptors’ season may come down to one familiar question: can Jakob Poeltl stay on the floor and look like himself again?
That’s the hinge point in Toronto. The roster can survive a lot of moving parts, but the center spot still feels like the clearest variable.
If Poeltl is healthy and playing at his previous level, the Raptors’ uncertainty in the middle shrinks fast. If he isn’t, the whole setup gets a lot messier.
Toronto does not have a deep bank of traditional centers behind him. Collin Murray-Boyles is expected to log real minutes at the five, especially in lineups that value his defensive versatility and mobility. Training camp could also bring opportunities for Trayce Jackson-Davis, Allen Graves, Kyle Anderson and even Trey Jemison III, depending on how that battle develops.
But for Toronto to chase its goals this season, Poeltl’s health has to hold up. He’s about to turn 31, and his value still starts with what he does in the paint.
When Poeltl is right, he gives the Raptors real backbone. He protects the rim, defends the post, rebounds, and handles the physical grind of matching up with bigger, stronger, more assertive centers. He’s also one of Toronto’s steadier defensive communicators, the kind of veteran who helps organize everything while operating in drop coverage.
That matters because his presence lets the rest of the defense breathe. If Poeltl is anchoring the back line, Toronto’s wings can pressure the ball and lean into the full-court style Darko Rajakovic wants. Murray-Boyles adds flexibility, but there will still be plenty of nights when Toronto needs Poeltl’s size and force.
And he brings more than defense. Poeltl is a smart passer, especially from the elbows, where he can find cutters and react quickly when the defense collapses. He’s also an efficient finisher around the rim and has developed a dependable floater.
Last season, he averaged 10.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists while shooting a remarkable 69.8 percent true shooting.
The bigger issue is that his production has slipped over the past couple of seasons, and health has been a major reason. Poeltl said he changed his offseason approach heading into this year.
“I think the biggest difference was to my workout preparation and general day-to-day routine,” Poeltl said. “In the past where I would do a quick mobility and warmup before my workout, do my workout and then lift after, this summer it was more like long mobility stretching session, then an activation session and then a whole lift. So, I had an hour and a half- or two-hour program before my basketball workout even started.”
That adjustment comes after a rough year. Poeltl played only 46 games last season and never really looked fully comfortable.
His defensive numbers fell sharply, down to 0.7 blocks and 0.9 steals per game from 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals the season before. His scoring and rebounding also dropped from 14.5 points and 9.6 rebounds in 2024-25 to 10.7 points and 7.0 rebounds last season.
That 2024-25 version is closer to the player Toronto expected when it invested in him. And that’s the standard the Raptors need now.
His contract is part of the conversation too. It climbs to $29.4 million at its peak, which is a hefty number for a center who doesn’t stretch the floor much. Still, the contract and the player have to be judged separately when the Raptors are weighing their ambitions for this season.
When Poeltl has been healthy, the team’s results have generally reflected it. Toronto was 7.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor in 2023 and 2024, and 6.9 points per 100 possessions better in 2025. Last season, though, the Raptors were 2.8 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court.
That doesn’t mean regression is inevitable. It does, however, explain why fans and the media keep circling the same concerns: health and age-related decline.
The good news for Toronto is that this doesn’t have to be an either-or choice between Poeltl and Murray-Boyles. Murray-Boyles gives the Raptors a different kind of center option, one built around switching, defending multiple spots, playing at the level, and creating offense from the short roll. He fits small-ball lineups and can be a strong answer in certain matchups.
Still, plenty of games will call for a true center, and that’s where Poeltl comes back into focus.
Toronto doesn’t need him to become a star or suddenly expand his offensive game. It needs the version that has worked before: efficient scoring, solid rebounding, sharp defensive communication, and the kind of interior physicality that stabilizes everything around him.
If the Raptors get that, Poeltl could end up defining their season. If they don’t, his future in Toronto starts looking very different.
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