The Maple Leafs are handing Gavin McKenna a heavy load, but they’re also giving him a far better runway than most first overall picks get.
After Toronto’s worst season in a decade and the reward of winning the NHL Draft lottery, general manager John Chayka used the No. 1 pick on McKenna. That move instantly put the teenage phenom at the center of the franchise’s next chapter, with a hockey-crazed market waiting to see how quickly he can help change the mood around the team.
Former NHL coach Pierre McGuire and former goaltender Martin Biron both think McKenna can make a real dent right away, even if they see that impact coming in different ways.
McGuire drew a direct line to Matthew Schaefer, the 2025 first overall pick who made a major splash with the New York Islanders by tying the record for goals by a rookie defenseman and winning the Calder Trophy. On the Toronto Sports Rush podcast with host Kyle Andrew, McGuire pointed to Schaefer’s “dramatic impact” in New York and said, "I think Gavin McKenna can have the same kind of impact, but up front."
McGuire also believes Toronto’s roster can soften the landing. He mentioned Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Jake McCabe as veteran voices who can help guide McKenna through his first NHL steps. Andrew added that McKenna won’t have to shoulder the scoring load the way Connor Bedard did with the Chicago Blackhawks, thanks to the presence of Matthews and William Nylander.
That kind of support, Andrew noted, is unusual for a player taken first overall. McGuire compared it to the veteran help he once saw around Jaromir Jagr with the Pittsburgh Penguins, saying that sort of environment can take pressure off a young star. He also pointed to the Leafs’ off-ice support from former experienced stars such as Mats Sundin, also a former first overall pick, and Daniel Alfredsson.
Biron sees McKenna’s value showing up in a more specific spot: beside Matthews. On TSN’s That’s Hockey, he said McKenna could make a “playmaking impact” depending on his linemates and suggested putting him with Matthews “right away.”
In Biron’s view, that combination could help Matthews get back to being a 50-goal scorer. He also expects McKenna to give Toronto’s power play a boost. Biron admitted that’s a lot to ask from a teenager drafted first overall, but said he likes McKenna’s skill set and the way he adjusted during the second half of his NCAA season with Penn State.
Biron doesn’t think McKenna will be a big goal scorer as a rookie. Instead, he believes the numbers could pile up in the assist column, projecting that McKenna can “easily” reach 50 or 60 assists.
However it unfolds, McKenna’s rookie season is going to be one of the main stories in Toronto. The expectations are enormous, but the Leafs are betting that his talent is rare enough to meet them.
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