The Toronto Maple Leafs' playoff hopes have taken a significant hit as they navigate the final stretch of the 2025-26 NHL season. The season-ending injury to star captain Auston Matthews on March 12 has left the team in a precarious position, dashing the dreams of a postseason appearance for the first time since the 2015-16 season.
Fans had high hopes despite the offseason departure of right winger Mitch Marner, but the season has been marred by injuries, trade rumors, and inconsistent play. As a result, the Leafs find themselves on the outside looking in, with a lot of uncertainty surrounding the future of their current core.
However, there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon: the 2026 NHL Draft. The Leafs' first-round pick, currently owned by the Boston Bruins due to the Brandon Carlo trade, is top-five protected.
This twist adds an intriguing element to the Leafs' remaining games. If they manage to slide into the top five, they could retain their pick and potentially land the highly touted prospect, Gavin McKenna.
Currently, the Leafs hold the seventh-worst record in the NHL. Teams like the Chicago Blackhawks and Calgary Flames are below them, along with underperforming squads like the Winnipeg Jets. With 13 games left, it's unlikely Toronto will plunge to the league's bottom, where the Vancouver Canucks sit with 50 points compared to Toronto's 71.
To improve their draft odds, Toronto might need to focus on two pivotal games against the New York Rangers on March 25 and the St. Louis Blues on March 28. Losses in these matchups would mean no points for the Leafs and crucial points for their opponents.
Yet, even with strategic losses, much remains beyond Toronto's control. The performance of teams below them, especially in head-to-head matchups, will heavily influence the standings. For the Leafs to secure a top-five pick, everything needs to align perfectly.
If the stars do align, Toronto could land a franchise-altering prospect. If not, GM Brad Treliving and his team will have to chart a new course for the storied franchise.