As the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in an unexpected position this season, fans are shifting their focus from playoff hopes to draft aspirations. A year ago, they were comfortably atop the Atlantic Division, but now they're eyeing the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery with hopes of snagging the top pick.
The offseason additions of Nic Roy, Dakota Joshua, and Mattias Maccelli were meant to fill the gap left by Mitch Marner. Unfortunately, the results haven't met expectations, leaving the Leafs at the bottom of the Atlantic and 15th in the Eastern Conference, just above the struggling New York Rangers.
With the potential to finish among the league's bottom five, including teams like the Vancouver Canucks and Chicago Blackhawks, the Leafs are in a precarious spot. If they don't secure a top-five pick, their first-rounder will head to the Boston Bruins.
Currently, the Canucks are the frontrunners for the first overall pick, holding the worst record in the NHL. But where do the Leafs fit into this picture?
Understanding the NHL Draft Lottery
Since 2021, the NHL Draft Lottery has determined the first two picks, involving the league's bottom 11 teams. Teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots, which is crucial for the Leafs. Finishing outside the bottom 11 would make them ineligible for the lottery win, while landing between 12th and 16th limits their upward movement.
The lottery is weighted, favoring teams with poorer records. The Canucks, likely to finish last, have the best odds for the top pick. However, surprises happen, as seen with the New York Islanders last year, who leapt from 10th to first.
Currently, the Leafs have about a 13% chance of landing a top-two pick. Without it, their pick goes to Boston.
Toronto’s Odds and the Tanking Debate
If the Leafs finish in the bottom five, their odds for the first overall pick hover around eight to nine percent. Their chances of keeping a top-five pick are significantly better, with a fifth-place finish offering a 40% chance of securing a top-five slot.
While not guaranteed, these odds give Toronto a shot at a high draft pick. However, finishing closer to 10th or 11th sees their chances plummet to just a few percent.
This has led some fans to embrace the idea of a strategic late-season tank. With playoff hopes dashed and Auston Matthews sidelined, every loss could improve their draft position.
The Reality of Tanking
Tanking in the NHL is complex. Players and coaches compete for pride, contracts, and jobs, making intentional losses unlikely.
Despite finishing low, the lottery's unpredictability means even the best odds don't ensure success. Teams like Anaheim have missed out despite favorable positions, while others, like the Islanders, have surged unexpectedly.
For Leafs fans dreaming of a franchise-altering pick like projected top choice Gavin McKenna, the journey remains challenging yet possible. In a season full of surprises, the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery might just deliver another twist.