Morgan Rielly still feels like the kind of player the Toronto Maple Leafs could move, but if they do, the target has to be Erik Karlsson.
That possibility has been out there before, but Elliotte Friedman gave it real oxygen on the 32 Thoughts podcast three days ago, and it’s the sort of idea that makes sense for a Leafs team living on a tight competitive clock. With Matthews’ current contract set to expire in two years, Toronto has to think in terms of a window that’s already ticking. Karlsson’s deal runs out at the end of next season, which lines up with that urgency.
The fit is obvious on paper. Since landing in Pittsburgh three years ago, Karlsson has cleared 50 points and double-digit goals in every season. He’s missed just seven games over the last four years and has spent the last five seasons in a real renaissance after four straight years in San Jose in which he missed at least 25 games each time.
A swap built around Rielly would also solve some roster and cap problems for both sides. Toronto is listed at -2.7 million in current cap space, while Pittsburgh sits at +13.6 million and Columbus at +12.6 million.
On the cap-net side, the Leafs are at -750K, the Penguins at -2.5 million and the Blue Jackets at +3.3 million. If Max Domi goes on LTIR to start the season, Toronto would clear another $3.75 million, leaving the club about $1.75 million under the ceiling to open the year.
Karlsson, 36, is coming off his strongest season since joining the Pens in 2023, finishing with 66 points in 75 games. That’s a modest line for a player of his caliber, but it still placed him among the top 10 at his position. He also brings a right-handed shot, something Toronto would gladly add as it tries to round out its blue line.
Rielly, 32, brings the opposite profile: a left-handed defender with four years left on the deal Dubas signed him to. He has topped 66 points only twice in his career, with the last coming in 2022. Pittsburgh’s need for left-handed defensemen who can skate is obvious, and Rielly’s contract could become more manageable as the cap rises, though that would depend on how he ages and whether he can keep finding ways to justify the money.
Topi Niemelä is the sweetener in the deal. The Leafs prospect would land in a Penguins system that is thin beyond Harrison Brunicke.
Drafted in the third round in 2020, Niemelä is one of only two prospects still in Toronto’s farm system that Dubas himself drafted, along with Artur Akhtyamov. He’s 23 and projects as a high-IQ, right-handed, puck-moving defenseman.
The Columbus piece adds another layer. If the Blue Jackets are willing to take a shot on Joshua rebounding, the pick swap makes the whole structure lower risk for a team that has been stuck in purgatory and lacks depth up front. Joshua is owed only $2.625 million of his $3.25 million cap hit over the final two years of the contract, which could make him easier for Columbus to absorb.
None of it works unless the players agree to it, of course. Rielly and Karlsson would both have to waive their NMCs. There’s also a human angle here: Karlsson could be drawn to Toronto because of Alfredsson and Sundin in core leadership roles, while Rielly has a long relationship with Dubas that goes back more than five years and includes the extension they agreed to in 2021.
For Pittsburgh, the appeal of Rielly isn’t that he outproduces Karlsson. It’s that he’s younger, still has years left in a career that has been very good, and can log heavy minutes with speed and puck-moving ability from the left side. For Toronto, Karlsson could be a one-year swing depending on how this season plays out, with free agency looming next summer and the possibility that he goes after the Stanley Cup ring that has escaped him his whole career.
There is a path where the Leafs get a huge return from the move and even keep Karlsson around on a shorter extension into his late 30s. But right now, this is about the present, and the present says Toronto should only move Rielly if Karlsson is the piece coming back.
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Maple Leafs Still Have A Depth Question Heading Into Camp
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Among the names floating as possibilities are defenseman Nick Blankenburg, who has NHL experience with the Predators and Avalanche, and versatile center Curtis Lazar, a veteran of several NHL stops. Nothing has been signed yet, and the Leafs have also had recent roster changes under general manager John Chayka, so this feels like one of those late-summer questions that could linger right up to camp. [Read more 🡒]