Matthew Knies keeps finding himself in the middle of Maple Leafs chatter, and the latest spotlight only strengthens the case that Toronto may have locked him up at the right price.
Sportsnet’s Michael Amato included Knies among the NHL’s best-value contracts, and for the Leafs it was the kind of recognition that both validates the player and underlines why his name has kept surfacing in trade rumors. Knies is a young, productive power forward on a long-term deal, and with no no-movement clause attached, he remains one of Toronto’s most appealing trade chips. That combination makes him valuable whether the Leafs are trying to keep him or move him.
Amato’s list featured 14 players, but Knies was the only Toronto skater to make the cut. Seven of the names came from Atlantic Division rivals, with the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning all represented by Lane Hutson, Ivan Demidov, Jake Sanderson, Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Brandon Hagel.
On Knies, Amato wrote, "After months of hearing his name in trade rumors, Knies appears to be sticking around, and that's a good outcome for the Toronto Maple Leafs." He also pointed to the rare blend Knies brings: scoring touch plus a physical edge.
Amato cited Knies’ career-high 66 points last season, a number he posted while playing injured on a bad Leafs team. He wrapped up his assessment by saying, "A healthy Knies in a better situation has off-the-charts potential, and his $7.75 million cap hit is a steal for what he brings to the table."
That cap hit looks even better when set against where the league is headed. With the NHL salary cap projected to rise to $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28, Toronto’s $7.75 million commitment could end up looking like a major bargain if Knies keeps climbing.
The upside is obvious: if the 23-year-old develops into a steady 30-35-goal scorer and a 70-75-point producer, the Leafs would have elite value baked into the deal. But that’s still a projection, not a finished product.
To fully cash in on the contract, Knies has to keep pushing his offense, keep bringing the physical game that defines him, and tighten up defensively after finishing with a glaring -30 plus/minus in 2025-26. If he checks those boxes, this deal won’t just be good - it’ll be one of the NHL’s best.
In Other News...
Matthew Knies Deal Already Looks Better For The Leafs
Matthew Knies long-term deal with the Maple Leafs was signed with the usual mix of hope and risk that comes with paying for upside before it has fully matured. Toronto committed six years at a $7.75 million average annual value in 2025, betting that Knies would keep trending into a key top-six piece and that the price would look sensible as the salary cap and comparable contracts kept moving. At the time, it was a notable investment in a player still building his full resume.
Now the market around other young forwards is starting to make that number look even more reasonable. Cutter Gauthier, a restricted free agent with the Anaheim Ducks, is reportedly in negotiations that could land in the $15-17 million AAV range, with Leo Carlssons recent $18 million AAV extension hanging over those talks as a reference point. Knies and Gauthier are different players in different situations, but the broader takeaway for Toronto is hard to miss: a contract that once looked ambitious can start to feel sharp if the next wave of comparables keeps climbing. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Projected Lineup Puts Familiar Faces In A Tough Spot
The Maple Leafs projected 2026-27 lineup offers a snapshot of how much the roster could change after a round of organizational adjustments, with new acquisitions and coaching tweaks reshaping the teams balance up front and on the back end. The exercise is less about where Toronto is today and more about how the club might try to blend scoring punch with more reliable two-way play if the right pieces settle into place.
What makes the projection interesting for Leafs followers is the way it creates pressure points for familiar faces while opening the door for newcomers to carve out meaningful roles. Health and consistency remain part of the conversation, especially in goal, where the team is still trying to sort out how much trust to place in Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz as the position gets redefined around them. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Camp Could Get Complicated Thanks To Two Overlooked Names
Training camp usually starts with the obvious names, the players everyone assumes are already locked in or fighting for the last few spots, but Bo Groulx and Marshall Rifai are the kinds of depth pieces who can quietly make things interesting for the Maple Leafs. Groulx brought good energy and solid play with the Marlies, and he even got a brief look with Toronto last season, which at least puts him on the radar when camp opens.
Rifai is the other name worth tracking because his game is built around physicality and defense, the sort of profile that can stand out if the new coaching staff wants a different look from its bottom-end options. Neither player is a favorite to break through, and neither comes with any guarantee, but both have enough going for them to keep this camp from being as straightforward as it first appears. [Read more 🡒]