Matthew Knies may be headed for a tougher road up the Maple Leafs’ lineup chart, even with all the tools that have made him one of the league’s most interesting power forwards.
Knies has spent the past three seasons growing into a player who can score, create, bring physical edge and do it all on a team-friendly deal. That’s why he looks like such an important piece for the Maple Leafs now and going forward. Even after the trade chatter that followed him around this summer, Knies said he’s focused on the group he’s with.
“I try not to look into it too much. Obviously, I'm not blind to it, I see it every now and then with my buddies sending it to me.
It's cliché to say, but it's really out of my control, I didn't have any say as to what was going on. I'm fortunate that I'm still here and I'm a part of this group because I love these guys.”
He also said his injury is no longer a concern, adding that he feels 100 percent and believes those issues are behind him.
The wrinkle is where he fits best. For much of his career, Knies has been tied to Auston Matthews, but the numbers suggest that partnership may not be the cleanest answer.
His xGF% with John Tavares sits at 46.79 over 230 games together, while his mark with Matthews is 53.79. That sounds better, but Matthews’ own xGF% without Knies is 51.41, which points to the captain still driving play just fine on his own.
Without Matthews at all, Knies drops to 40.97 xGF%, which is a rougher picture.
Knies did still post a career-best 66 points last season, including 43 assists, and he was one of the few Maple Leafs consistently producing offense. A lot of that came from him driving play himself rather than simply riding shotgun.
That leaves Jim Hiller with a real lineup decision. He’ll have to weigh whether the old setup makes the most sense or whether Knies would be better served in a different role, with the possibility that he could slide out of the top six at times this season.
If that happens, it might not be a downgrade so much as a different kind of opportunity. Knies could fit on a checking line with Nick Paul and Colton Sissons, where the group would have the size, skill and bite to make life miserable for opponents. Sissons has already shown what that kind of line can do, posting a 65.57 xGF% alongside Tomas Hertl and Reilly Smith in Vegas.
A line like that wouldn’t just be about throwing hits. It would be built to pressure, control possession, wear teams down and create problems in every zone. Knies has the offense to finish chances and the physical presence to help set that tone.
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