Leafs at the Crossroads: Why Standing Pat Might Be the Riskiest Move of All
The Toronto Maple Leafs are staring down a pivotal moment in their 2025-26 season, and the upcoming trade deadline is shaping up to be more about direction than deals. With the Olympic break looming, GM Brad Treliving finds himself in the middle of a high-stakes balancing act: push forward, pull back, or do nothing and hope this current group finds its footing.
Let’s be clear - this season has been anything but steady. The Leafs have ridden the rollercoaster from a sluggish start to a promising 9-1-3 run after parting ways with assistant coach Marc Savard.
But consistency has been elusive, and as it stands, Toronto is teetering on the playoff bubble. There’s no guarantee they get in, and even less certainty they can make noise if they do.
So what’s the play here?
The Case for Standing Pat
There’s a strong argument that the Leafs simply don’t have the capital to make a meaningful splash. After years of buying at the deadline, the cupboard is close to bare. Last season’s push cost them big: top prospects like Nikita Grebenkin and Fraser Minten, plus their first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, were all shipped out to bring in Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo.
Now, if Toronto wanted to buy again, the only real chips left are Easton Cowan, Ben Danford, and a 2027 second-rounder. That’s not much to work with - and giving up any of those assets now, with the playoffs far from a sure thing, would be a high-risk move with questionable upside.
That leaves “hockey trades” - the rare, old-school deals where teams swap players of similar value to address specific needs. But those are tough to pull off in today’s NHL, especially when so many teams still believe they’re in the hunt. The market just isn’t ripe for that kind of maneuvering.
And let’s not forget the reality of where this team stands. They haven’t shown enough sustained success to suggest they’re a legitimate threat in the postseason, but they’ve also avoided being bad enough to tank for a top draft pick like Gavin McKenna. They’re in that dreaded middle ground - not bad, not great - and that’s usually where teams freeze at the deadline.
For Treliving, that middle ground is dangerous. He’s under pressure from ownership and fans alike, but with limited assets and playoff odds working against him, standing pat might seem like the safest option.
Let the group ride it out. Hope the Olympic break offers a reset.
See if the talent on hand can finally click.
The Case Against Standing Pat
But here’s the problem with doing nothing: it’s still a decision - and maybe the worst one available.
This Leafs roster, for all its flaws, still has enough talent to make things interesting. Yes, they’ve struggled to adjust without Mitch Marner.
Yes, injuries have piled up. And yes, the power play has been a sore spot.
But when they’re on, this team can compete. Their 7-10 record in games decided beyond regulation suggests a bit of bad luck too - flip a few of those results, and the playoff picture looks a lot more optimistic.
The Olympic break could provide the mental and physical reset this group needs. And while a blockbuster move is off the table, there’s still room for creativity.
Treliving could look at players in need of a change of scenery, younger pieces with upside, or veterans on the outs with their current clubs. These aren’t needle-moving trades, but sometimes a fresh face or a new dynamic is all a team needs to get going.
On the flip side, if Treliving believes this team doesn’t have the horses to make a real run, then it’s time to start thinking about the future. That doesn’t mean a full teardown, but a soft reset - moving pieces like Laughton, Carlo, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, or Bobby McMann for picks or prospects - could restock the shelves and give this team a better shot at sustained success down the road.
It’s not an easy call, especially when you’ve got stars like Auston Matthews and William Nylander in their prime. But burning a year of that prime in a half-hearted playoff push might do more long-term damage than taking a step back now to take two steps forward later. The Leafs are already in a transition phase - leaning into that reality might be the smartest play.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t about chasing a miracle run or waving the white flag. It’s about choosing a direction and committing to it. Whether it’s adding a few low-cost reinforcements or flipping veterans for future assets, the one move Treliving can’t afford to make is no move at all.
Because in the NHL, standing still often means falling behind. And for a Leafs team stuck in the middle, that’s a place they simply can’t afford to stay.