The Maple Leafs may have just gotten a financial break at the perfect time, and it could matter if Nikita Kucherov ever makes it to July 1.
Kucherov’s future has been a major talking point since the Lightning forward decided he wanted out of Tampa Bay and requested a trade last week. That immediately set off a wave of speculation, and Toronto has been mentioned as a team with real interest. The Leafs don’t have a huge pile of assets to work with, but if a trade never comes together, Kucherov would become a free agent on July 1, which opens another path.
That’s where the cap news comes in.
Elliotte Friedman said on Spittin’ Chiclets last week that the NHL salary cap is headed for a major jump, and he pointed to a number that changes the picture for teams planning ahead:
The cap is going up to 127.5 [million] next year; the league really believes it’s gonna flatten out at some point, they do, the Player's Association feels differently, we'll see who's right.
Right now, the cap is at $104-million. Puckpedia has next year projected at $113.5-million, but Friedman’s projection skips ahead to 2028-29. That bigger number would give Toronto a much larger financial runway, and the structure of the cap could help them keep moving past 2027-28 while still making room for Kucherov.
The summer of 2028 is where things get especially interesting for the Leafs, because they’re expected to have a lot of expiring deals at that point, which would not affect Kucherov’s cap hit going forward.
Of course, Toronto can’t just throw money at Kucherov without thinking about the rest of the roster. The Leafs already have stars in place for him to play with, including William Nylander, Kirill Marchenko, and John Tavares, but there are still major contract decisions ahead.
Auston Matthews is the biggest one. He can sign an extension this summer, and it’s still unclear whether he’ll stay. If he does, Toronto could be committing a massive chunk of cap space to a deal that would likely climb well above his current $13.25M AAV, with $16-17M per season a possibility, especially after his resurgence this year.
And that’s not all. The Leafs also need extensions for Easton Cowan and Gavin McKenna, and those deals could come in at around $10M AAV each.
So yes, Kucherov to Toronto is possible. But the Leafs’ ability to actually pull it off will come down to how they handle those other big extensions. By the time everything is sorted out, they may not have the room to make it happen.
In Other News...
Leafs Fans May Not Want To Hear Burkes Trade Warning
Former Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke is casting a wary eye on the clubs search for a top defenseman, and the warning lands with some force because it speaks to a familiar problem: how much can a team really spend when the cupboard is not exactly full? Burke pointed out that Toronto has already moved a lot of future value, which makes any pursuit of a major blue-line upgrade a lot more complicated than simply calling around and making an offer.
John Chayka has never been shy about making bold moves, but Burkes point is that bold and possible are not always the same thing. The Leafs still have to work around the reality of limited trade flexibility, and unless they are willing to part with pieces they would rather keep, the market for a difference-making defenseman may be narrower than fans would like. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Linked To A Low-Risk Forward Fit That Could Divide Fans
The waiver wire has put another veteran forward within reach, and Danton Heinen is the name drawing attention around the league after Columbus made the move. Heinen brings a long NHL resume and a modest cap hit, the kind of low-cost depth option that can tempt teams looking for insurance without making a major commitment.
Toronto is one of the clubs mentioned as a possible fit, which makes sense on paper given the Maple Leafs constant need to keep their bottom six flexible and competitive. Still, this is the sort of addition that can split a fan base, because the Leafs already have several depth forwards they like, and any move for Heinen would be about fit and opportunity more than a clear-cut opening in the lineup. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Trade Piece Emil Andrae Suddenly Faces Another Uncertain Turn
Emil Andraes path has already taken another sharp turn since the Maple Leafs moved him to Columbus on Sept. 28 as part of a larger trade package between the two clubs. The deal sent several players back and forth between Toronto and the Blue Jackets, but Andraes situation has quickly become the one worth watching from the Leafs side because it speaks to how unsettled the reshuffling still is.
Andrae has appeared in five games for Columbus this season, and now the next step in his season is up in the air again. For Toronto, it is another reminder that the trade market can keep spinning long after the paperwork is done, especially when a players immediate future depends on whether he sticks in the NHL or gets pushed down the organizational ladder. [Read more 🡒]