John Tavares is still producing for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the early evidence points to a tougher fit in the spot where the team is using him now.
The Leafs, if they want to get back to the playoffs, need to upgrade their second-line centre spot and slide Tavares down to the third line. That idea may sound harsh on the surface, but the case being made here is not about diminishing Tavares’ overall value.
The 35-year-old has two assists in his first three games and remains a quality player. The issue is speed, and more specifically, how much of it he still has in a role that asks him to keep up with an 18-year-old.
Tavares has never been a burner, but there are already signs that he is a step behind. Playing alongside Gavin McKenna and William Nylander, he has been out of reach on several passes this season. That could be chalked up to a chemistry issue this early in the year, but the numbers support the eye test.
Through three games, Tavares’ top speed burst has reached 20.23 mph. Last season, that number was 22.66 mph. Yes, that came over a full season, and yes, it’s early, but after a long offseason the expectation would be a little more pace right away.
The bigger picture is that McKenna looks like a player who would benefit from a faster centre. That might mean moving him up to the first line with Auston Matthews, or it might mean making a trade.
Even with that concern, Toronto’s top six remains strong. The real opportunity is in building a deeper top nine, and that starts with improving the centre position. Nick Paul and Teddy Blueger are described as solid bottom-six centres, but the Leafs would be better off pushing Paul to the wing, elevating Easton Cowan, and reshaping the lineup from there.
One possible version would look like this:
Easton Cowan - Auston Matthews - Kirill Marchenko
Gavin McKenna - X Centre - William Nylander
Nick Paul - John Tavares - Jack Roslovic
Marchenko has spent his NHL career at right wing before arriving in Toronto, while Cowan is making a case for more ice time. That setup would also allow Roslovic to drop to the third line, Cowan to move into a top-line role, and create a third unit that can grind and still score.
Cap space is not the issue. The Leafs have $7M available. The harder part is finding the player, especially after trading away their best trade chip in Matthew Knies and with limited draft picks to work with.
One possibility is to wait for Connor McDavid to become a UFA and solve the second-line centre spot that way. Until then, the argument is that Toronto needs a replacement for Tavares in that role, because he is clearly losing a step. The Leafs may be able to hide it for the first half, but when the playoffs arrive, the hope is that JT is on the third line.
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The Leafs wasted little time taking advantage, scoring twice in a row after Sanderson exited to grab a 2-1 lead. In a game where every shift mattered, Ottawa could not afford to lose one of its top defensemen, and Toronto quickly showed why those kinds of openings rarely stay closed for long. [Read more 🡒]